Re: In the bull's-eye

From: Mike (n00spam_at_comcast.net)
Date: 12/25/04 

Date: 25 Dec 2004 13:51:52 -0800

Uncle Al wrote:
> Mike wrote:
> >
> > http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
> >
> > "Cross-Posted from AEBrain, the Blog.
> >
> > Friday the 13th of April 2029 has a 1 in 62.5 chance of being a Bad
Day
> > if you're in the wrong spot.
> >
> > According to the latest data from NASA, an asteroid named 2004 MN4
has
> > been detected and tracked with that chance of hitting the Earth on
that
> > date.
> >
> > If it happens, the impact would be the equivalent of an explosion
of
> > about 2,200 Megatonnes of TNT.
> [snip spin]
>
> The Earth-moon system has been doing its thing for at least 4 billion
> years. One presumes the asteroid has been around a commensurate
> interval. It isn't going to hit now.

And yet asteroids hit the earth. What is your point?

>The asteroid's orbit will be
> properly tracked, NASA computers will be diverted from playing Doom3,
> it will Officially miss hitting a sweet spot by the narrowest of
> funding margins.

Lets hope so!

>
> If NASA **really** believed it was going to be close at all, NASA
> would be creaming in its funding jeans demanding photographic and
> physical interception missions with a quarter century of lead time.
> They aren't, it isn't. Ho hum.

A 1% chance isn't chilling. I posted it because its a new "high water
mark". I don't expect the sky to fall. Also, fourteen years is long
way off even for NASA budget planners who have a lot already on their
plate.

--Mike

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