Re: Peak oil is an balloon, let's break it.

From: Pat Fallon (pfallon_at_ptd.net)
Date: 02/17/05 

Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 13:08:38 -0500

Subject: "Peak oil"

> Isn't the real problem that it has taken so many million years, by
> whatever source, to produce this oil? I notice that there are no
> abandoned wells that have filled back up.
>
> David A. Smith
>

don't know about "abandoned wells', but there are certainly examples of
exisiting wells, thought to be nearing exhaustion, seemingly "recharging"...

-------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.science-frontiers.com/sf124/sf124p10.htm :
Eugene Island is a submerged mountain in the Gulf of Mexico about 80 miles
off the Louisiana coast. The landscape of Eugene Island is riven with deep
fissures and faults from which spew spontaneous belches of gas and oil. Up
on the surface, a platform designated Eugene Island 330 began producing
about 15,000 barrels of oil per day in the early 1970s. By 1989, the flow
had dwindled to 4,000 barrels per day. Then, suddenly, production zoomed to
13,000 barrels. In addition, estimated reserves rocketed from 60 to 400
million barrels. Even more anomalous is the discovery that the geological
age of today's oil is quite different from that recovered 10 years ago.
What's going on under the Gulf of Mexico?

It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the oil reservoir at Eugene
Island is rapidly refilling itself from "some continuous source miles below
the earth's surface." In support of this surmise, analysis of seismic
records revealed a deep fault which "was gushing oil like a garden hose."

-----------------------------------------------

"The Middle East has more than doubled its reserves in the past 20 years,
despite half a century of intense exploitation and relatively few new
discoveries. It would take a pretty big pile of dead dinosaurs and
prehistoric plants to account for the estimated 660 billion barrels of oil
in the region, notes Norman Hyne, a professor at the University of Tulsa in
Oklahoma. "Off-the-wall theories often turn out to be right," he says."

(Cooper, Christopher; "It's No Crude Joke: This Oil Field Grows Even as It's
Tapped," Wall Street Journal, April 16, 1999. Cr. C. Casale.)

----------------------------------------------

Saudi Oil Is Secure and Plentiful, Say Officials
Tim Kennedy, Arab News
http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&section=0&article=44011&d=29&m=4&y=2004

WASHINGTON, 29 April 2004 - Officials from Saudi Arabia's oil industry and
the international petroleum organizations shocked a gathering of foreign
policy experts in Washington yesterday with an announcement that the Kingdom's
previous estimate of 261 billion barrels of recoverable petroleum has now
more than tripled, to 1.2 trillion barrels.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia's key oil and finance ministers assured the
audience - which included US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan - that
the Kingdom has the capability to quickly double its oil output and sustain
such a production surge for as long as 50 years...

"Saudi Arabia now has 1.2 trillion barrels of estimated reserve. This
estimate is very conservative. Our analysis gives us reason to be very
optimistic. We are continuing to discover new resources, and we are using
new technologies to extract even more oil from existing reserves," the
minister said.

 "Saudi Arabia's vast oil reserves are certainly there," Naimi added. "None
of these reserves requires advanced recovery techniques. We have more than
sufficient reserves to increase output. If required, we can increase output
from 10.5 million barrels a day to 12 - 15 million barrels a day. And we can
sustain this increased output for 50 years or more. There will be no
shortage of oil for the next 50 years. Perhaps much longer."

[end quote from Arab News]

"Note that the oil reserves claimed by Saudi Arabia alone (1.2 trillion
barrels) exceed what the Peakers claim are the total recoverable oil
reserves for the entire planet. Let's pause here for a minute and think
about the significance of that: one tiny patch of land, accounting for less
than than 1/2 of 1% of the earth's total surface area, potentially contains
more oil that the 'Peak' pitchmen claim the entire planet has to offer! Is
there not something clearly wrong with this picture?"
[http://davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr70.html]

----------------------------------------------

http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=578462004 :

The best estimates in 1942 indicated that the Kern River field in California
had just 54 million barrels of remaining oil. By 1986, the field had
produced 736 million barrels, and estimates put the remaining reserves at
970 million barrels.
----------------------------------------------

http://davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr70.html :
Meanwhile, Mexico, which also hasn't been reading the 'Peak' memos, recently
announced the discovery of massive quantities of new petroleum reserves. The
Peakers, as we all know, repeatedly claim that no new reserves of any
consequence have been found for years. In fact, they go so far as to say
that there are no new reserves to be found. In one recent collection...
posted on the FTW website, Julian Darley writes: "Major oil discoveries have
declined every year so that 2003 saw no new field over 500 million barrels
... It is well over twenty years since more oil was found than consumed in a
year."
(http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/031704_two_planets.html)

Really, Mr. Darley? Are you sure about that? Let's check with the Mexican
press to see if you are correct:

Three years of exploration has enabled Pemex to map oilfields that the
state-owned oil monopoly believes will more than double the nation's known
crude oil reserves. Luis Ramírez Corzo, Pemex's director for exploration,
told EL UNIVERSAL that on a "conservative" estimate, almost 54 billion
barrels lie underneath the oilfields. That would take Mexico's reserves to
102 billion barrels, more than the United Arab Emirates (which has reserves
of 97.8 billion barrels), Kuwait (94 billion) and Iran (89.7 billion), and
almost as much as Iraq (112.5 billion). The official also said the discovery
could enable Pemex to increase Mexico's oil production from the current
level of 4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 7 million bpd. Saudi Arabia
currently produces 7.5 million bpd, while Russia's oil output is 7.4 million
bpd. Ramírez Corzo said the exploration, at an investment of US 4.6
billion, led to the identification of seven separate blocks rich in oil and
natural gas. The most promising blocks are under water in the Gulf of
Mexico, thought to contain around 45 billion barrels.
(http://www.el-universal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=6110&tabla=miami)

No new fields over 500 million barrels? How about the 45 billion new barrels
sitting in the Gulf of Mexico, right in our own backyard? Isn't that just a
tiny bit more than is "consumed in a year"?

Of course, the oil will not be easy to extract. Mexico will need some help,
since it "lacks the technology for deep water pumping." And there is another
problem as well: "there are territoriality issues with the United States and
Cuba over the fields." In order to bring the oil to market, Mexico will need
the cooperation of both the United States government and the major players
in the oil industry. In other words, the newly discovered oil isn't going to
be extracted any time soon, which is why the American media, and the 'Peak'
crowd, haven't bothered to acknowledge its existence.
(http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=15958)

---------------------------------------------

Pat Fallon
pfallon@ptd.net

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