Re: US [housing] bubble set to burst



Hi, Mitchell,



> ***{Civilizations rise and fall, and that's simply a fact. Thus it is
> incorrect to say that we always "come out the other side." (Unless, of
> course, a dark age meets your definition of "coming out." :-)



It's happened before, so I believe you. And yes, a dark age does meet
my definition of coming out. Rome still exists and has never ceased to
be a center of power of one sort or another. Most of the world uses the
Roman alphabet, with a few Greek letters thrown in (well, Greece was
part of the Empire). Boy, was that some Depression, and I'm sure Nero
would not be best pleased by the present arrangements, but we're still
here.



> Whether the present global imbalances are sufficient to trigger a
> breakdown of that magnitude is of course hard to say. I do believe,
> however, that the present mess is much worse than anything seen by
> anyone now living.



I think you have a short memory. In 1962, many people thought the world
faced total annihilation. I don't think anyone currently envisages that
degree of mess.



> When the existing malinvestments are wiped off the
> books, I expect a collapse much worse than what happened in the 1930's.
> Indeed, I will not be surprised if this civilization goes down, though I
> hesitate to predict such an outcome. I simply consider it to be a very
> realistic possibility, that's all.
>
> As for panic, what would be the point? If you see a train coming, you
> step off the tracks, suggest that others do likewise, and then have a
> good laugh at the expense of those who stubbornly remain on the tracks
> until the train passes by.



Where is "off the tracks"? On Mars? Or do you have an ex-Army-surplus
nuclear fallout shelter in the wilds of Montana to retire to? When the
factories stop producing cartridges for your gun, so that you can no
longer keep back the hordes of barbarian looters at the gate, what you
gonna do?

Cheers,

Zigoteau.

.

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