Beware the Ides of March
- From: ayaz <iamtheidiotwhocrossposts@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2008 19:30:33 +0000
Beware the Ides of March
FinGaz
Daniel Molokele
15 February 2008
BETWEEN the years 2000 and 2002 I used to run a column in
the Gweru-based Roman Catholic Church-funded monthly magazine
called Moto, (literally translated ?fire? from the local Shona
language). The column was called ?No Holds Barred?.
It may also be recalled that the Moto issue of March 2002, I
wrote an analysis entitled, ?Beware of the Ides of March?.
The article sought to warn the incumbent leader of Zimbabwe,
Robert Mugabe, not to take things for granted in the run-up to
the March 2002 elections. At that time, I felt it was
appropriate to use the analogy of the assassination of Julius
Caesar as the basis of my warning to (President) Mugabe as he
prepared to battle the then leader of a much more united and
determined opposition MDC, Morgan Tsvangirai.
It was my contention in the main, that just like Caesar, an
over confident (President) Mugabe ran the risk of experiencing a
humiliating defeat at the hands of the upstart, the ascendant
Tsvangirai.
But as history would have it, (President) Mugabe appeared to
have heeded the warning and fought perhaps the battle of his
entire political life. In the end, he managed to shrug off
Tsvangirai as some would argue, by hook or crook, in a an
election with a very controversial result.
And so it happened that unlike the great Caesar, the
President did not meet his fateful end that March. In fact he
has soldiered on, defying all forms of opposition to his
stranglehold on the Zimbabwean political leadership mace unto
this day.
But that was then.
As I write today, the political state of affairs in Zimbabwe
has just taken a new dramatic shift that might in the long term,
completely transform the political landscape forever.
February 5, an ordinary day in Zimbabwe suddenly breathed a
new lease of life into the largely moribund political
environment of the country. A major Press conference was held in
Harare that eventually brought the entire capital to a halt.
A rather quiet and unassuming gentleman, Simba Makoni, who
upset the apple cart by openly declaring his candidature for the
presidency in the much-anticipated March 2008 harmonised
elections, addressed the event. Personally, I was not all that
surprised by this turn of events. It appears that Makoni had
read the national political mood so well. There actually appears
to be an air of hopelessness and despondency in the Zimbabwean
political atmosphere. This was further compounded by a desperate
desire and yearning for some real politics of change.
Just a few days earlier, at the end of January 2008 to be
precise, in my chronological context, I spent almost a full week
in Bulawayo, the ailing second city of Zimbabwe. And so it
happened that during my latest visit to my motherland, I had a
good opportunity to collect views and perspectives about the
rumour that Simba Makoni was allegedly preparing to stake a
surprise challenge to President Mugabe?s leadership of Zimbabwe.
I managed to speak to a wide-ranging group of people from
some key political activists, civic society leaders, church
leaders, friends, relatives and some family members about the
alleged ambitions of Makoni.
The result of my elementary and less than empirical public
opinion survey was so astounding! I discovered that an
overwhelming number of people I spoke to were strongly in favour
of Makoni standing up to President Mugabe. It appeared the
people I spoke to had lost faith in both President Mugabe and
Tsvangirai altogether! There was so much disillusionment over
the performance of both the key candidates of the last
presidential elections in March 2002.
Both President Mugabe and Tsvangirai seemed to have lost
their strong appeal over the electorate.
In the final analysis, it was clear to me that Makoni was
not necessarily a popular choice but rather a desperate option
from a people that had become disillusioned with the leadership
of both President Mugabe and Tsvangirai. Makoni was thus an
emerging beneficiary of that strong feeling of disenchantment
with the status quo.
Makoni?s rather muted entrance into the presidential race
has indeed complicated matters on the Zimbabwean political
landscape. First and perhaps foremost, Makoni has breathed a new
lease of life into the nation?s confidence in the rather sterile
electoral systems of the country. Until his arrival, the 2008
elections were bound to be a huge non-event. Over the years, the
euphoria that greeted the formation of the opposition MDC and
its promise of political change has evaporated among the
long-suffering masses of Zimbabwe.
The MDC has not been able to complete the change and has in
the final analysis helped to develop a notion that it would
never be able to unseat President Mugabe via the electoral
process since it remained tilted heavily in favour of the
incumbent.
There is bound to be a re-affirmation of faith in the
electoral process of Zimbabwe by the majority of voters who up
to now were most likely not to even bother to turn out and vote,
let alone support a specific candidate. Secondly, Makoni?s
entrance has perhaps saved the country from the ever-growing
possibility of a military take over of the country. A
duplication of the recent electoral patterns in the country
would have resulted in the retention of a hugely unpopular
government that would have driven the millions of long suffering
Zimbabweans into an abyss of political despair.
That on its own could have resulted in a complete loss of
faith in all future elections leading to the need for a new
paradigm in the ultimate politics of change. As such the notion
of removing the incumbent by ?bullets? and not by ?ballots?
would have gathered more momentum. Such a ghastly context could
have led to civil unrest, a sure recipe for a coup or an all out
civil war.
Makoni?s decision has thus given the electoral politics of
change a stay of execution.
Thirdly, the entrance of Makoni as an independent now means
that it is certain that the presidential elections will not be a
predictable two-horse race between Mugabe and Tsvangirai as it
was in the last plebiscite of March 2002. Until now, it was
beginning to be apparent that there were only two serious
alternatives for the electorate, the same old protagonists in
the form of President Mugabe and Tsvangirai.
Makoni, it is hoped, will prove to be a viable alternative
on the presidential menu for the electorate to savour upon. This
is good for the development of a vibrant culture of credible
multi-party democracy in the country.
Fourthly, Makoni is also important in as far as the fact
that he appears to have a broad appeal across the nation. He
will be able to draw the attention of most voters who over the
years have grown disenchanted by the politics of both the MDC
and ZANU-PF.
It is common cause that both political parties are presently
suffering from a crisis of common purpose and disunity, as
largely reflected by the factionalism that is clearly evident in
both groupings.
The past weekend?s failure of the two factions of the MDC to
adopt a political pact for the polls is a clear case in point.
On the other hand, ZANU-PF has also been struggling to come up
with a legitimate list of candidates.
This is so mainly in Matabeleland where discord has been
exacerbated by the controversial reinstatement of Jabulani
Sibanda by President Mugabe, a move that has led to an
increasingly open challenge to his leadership credentials by the
disenchanted senior party members of PF-ZAPU origins.
Last but by no means least, Makoni appears to be more ikely
to defeat the incumbent than the MDC since he actually fits more
appropriately into the political analogy of the Ides of March.
Just like Brutus, he is from President Mugabe?s inner
circle. The presence of the likes of Ibbo Mandaza and retired
army boss Kudzai Mbudzi appears to suggest that he has the
backing of President Mugabe?s only credible source of political
power, the nation?s security forces.
Besides, Mandaza is known to be a close associate of the
ruling party?s alleged kingmaker who himself wields a lot of
influence over the armed forces, the retired army commander
Solomon Mujuru.
Makoni himself has already claimed in public that he has
consulted broadly and has the support of many senior leaders of
ZANU-PF.
And so just like Brutus, it is most likely that President
Mugabe, like Caesar, might not be able to survive an attack from
his own inner circle. As it is for now, he is no longer sure as
to who to trust within his own party. The postponement of the
party?s Politburo meeting last Wednesday may actually be an
indication of the prevailing turmoil and uncertainty within the
party leadership.
President Mugabe is reeling and staggering right now. As it
is, he may soon fall down fatally, at the hands of his own.
President Mugabe must be aware of the real Ides of March
this time around!
.
- Follow-Ups:
- Re: Beware the Ides of March
- From: Zodness
- Re: Beware the Ides of March
- Prev by Date: Exclusive: Interview with Makoni
- Next by Date: Ruling party rebel lays down his challenge to ageing Mugabe
- Previous by thread: Exclusive: Interview with Makoni
- Next by thread: Re: Beware the Ides of March
- Index(es):
Relevant Pages
|
