Re: The global population curve

On Jun 24, 5:52 am, rick_so...@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
On Jun 24, 10:32 am, tadchem <tadc...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:



On Jun 22, 3:19 pm, rick_so...@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:

At present there are 140 people born every minute, and in 2,000 years
that will be 14.35 trillion more people added to the present 6.7
billion.
15.02 trillion
There is 148,940,000,000 meters of land mass that is not ocean.
148.9 billion
Therefore for every meter of land on the surface of the earth, there
will be one hundred and one people.

Thats by the year 4008 should the earth or the people survive for
another 2,000 years and the current population growth rate continue.
And the growth rate has halved, since 1963.
At the growth rate of 1963, there would be 202 people per meter of
land on earth, in 2,000 years.

But since much of it is desert and mountain, probably there will be 87
million people per square meter living in the fertile valleys and in
cities.
And floating on garbage on the oceans in floating sea garbage ghetto
colonies.

The logistic function applies:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Only economists, politicians (Al Gore) and complete fools would
believe an extrapolation from a 1 minute trend to 2000 years.

Tom Davidson
Richmond, VA

Well it doesn't look like a logistics curve.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Population_curve.svg
Maybe it will starting tomorrow?

The curve you cite is on such a long timescale that it is difficult to
see what's going on. Look at just the last 2000 years:
http://www.flame.org/~cdoswell/Earth_Abides/The_Coming_Fall.html

This strongly resembles the first half of the logistic curve as the
growth rate approaches its maximum.

Note that the population was quite stable for a long time - the first
several centuries - and shows a slight sigmoidal increase coinciding
with the Medieval Warm Period (about 800 to 1300 CE). The post-
Renaissance growth (which continues today) coincides with the growth
of Industrialization.

Since the 'real world' data is sketchy and based on estimates, it
would be impossible to make long-term extrapolations, but it would
appear that the population curve has not yet (or is just now) reached
its point of most rapid growth, which is at about one half of the
final equilibrium value.

Given the current world population is about 6 billion plus, it looks
like we are heading for a 'stable' value of from 12 to 25 billion.
This will of course be strongly influenced by future events such as
breakthroughs in agriculture, epidemics, etc.

Tom Davidson
Richmond, VA
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: The global population curve
    ... There is 148,940,000,000 meters of land mass that is not ocean. ... Therefore for every meter of land on the surface of the earth, ... And the growth rate has halved, ... And floating on garbage on the oceans in floating sea garbage ghetto ...
    (sci.physics)
  • Re: The global population curve
    ... that will be 14.35 trillion more people added to the present 6.7 ... There is 148,940,000,000 meters of land mass that is not ocean. ... Therefore for every meter of land on the surface of the earth, ...
    (sci.physics)
  • Re: The global population curve
    ... that will be 14.35 trillion more people added to the present 6.7 ... There is 148,940,000,000 meters of land mass that is not ocean. ... Therefore for every meter of land on the surface of the earth, ... And the growth rate has halved, ...
    (sci.physics)
  • Re: The global population curve
    ... that will be 14.35 trillion more people added to the present 6.7 ... There is 148,940,000,000 meters of land mass that is not ocean. ... Therefore for every meter of land on the surface of the earth, ...
    (sci.physics)
  • The global population curve
    ... that will be 14.35 trillion more people added to the present 6.7 ... Therefore for every meter of land on the surface of the earth, ... And the growth rate has halved, ...
    (sci.physics)