Re: How long _should_ it take

From: Henry Spencer (henry_at_spsystems.net)
Date: 12/29/04 

Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 15:35:31 GMT

In article <41d04cce$0$33782$a726171b@news.hal-pc.org>,
Jon S. Berndt <jsb.at.hal-pc-dot.org> wrote:
>...how long _should_ CEV development really
>take, from this point forward (or from RFP forward - next month) to the
>first manned flight? ... "given whatever money is
>needed" how long would CEV take to develop and fly?

As per a discussion a month ago in s.s.policy, I think a program with firm
support, a small team, and "waste anything but time" marching orders could
do a limited flight test at two years, followed quickly by a full flight
test, a manned test, and delivery of the first usable lifeboats to the ISS
people before the three-year mark. A Block II design (which might include
quite substantial revisions) avaliable a year or two later would be a full
LEO taxi, a complete Soyuz/Progress replacement. Further incremental
improvements, say another year or two, would be needed for the beyond-LEO
Block III.

The big obstacle to this sort of fast pace is management, not technology
or money. That sort of schedule is utterly impossible if the thing is
done as a business-as-usual JSC megaproject. 

-- 
"Think outside the box -- the box isn't our friend."    |   Henry Spencer
                                -- George Herbert       | henry@spsystems.net

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