Re: Shuttle launch delayed until July

On Sat, 30 Apr 2005 14:39:57 -0500, Pat Flannery wrote
(in article <1177noegjikdq7c@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>):

> So after the Bush's New Space Initiative Mk. 2 gets canned in early 2009
> (if not earlier- given the track record of developing new manned
> spacecraft that NASA has shown in the past couple of decades, I'm not
> exactly waiting with bated breath for the CEV to take flight.), do we
> still ground the fleet and just abandon manned flights? Or do we keep
> flying the Shuttle because we don't have any replacement for it?
> Which looks more politically likely?

If CEV doesn't pick up enough political momentum to carry through a
change of Administration, I'd suspect the U.S. would give up manned
flight for a good while. The orbiters are simply getting too old to
sustain for very much longer and most (if not all) of the serious
upgrades planned to enable continued flight for another 15 - 20 years
have been cancelled in the post-107 OSP/CEV/Constellation era.

However, once CEV/Contstellation starts letting contracts for serious
money, it'll end up with a great deal of political capital. If past
NASA contracts are indicative, major contracts will be let with firms
in several regions of the country and across a great deal of
Congressional districts. Ergo, if enough money gets spread and if the
program is halfway-competently managed (unlike SSF for at least the
first four years after Phase B), CEV *will* fly, even if it's there is
a hiatus in manned flights for a time.

--
Herb Schaltegger, GPG Key ID: BBF6FC1C
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary
safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - Benjamin Franklin, 1759
<http://www.individual-i.com/>

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