Re: New Horizons RTG ramble
Kelly McDonald wrote:
> >
> > Ok, they are protesting because of the danger to the people if one of
> >those rockets explode. So how bad would it get if say New Horizons exploded
> >and the container that held the plutonium or whatever it was carrying was
> >damaged and released it's contents? How many people would get contaminated?
> >And how would they be effected? Would they die instantly? Would they just
> >get an increase in the risk of cancer? Something in between? Would it be a
> >definite danger to the people in Orlando?
> >
> >
> Divers would head out into the Atlantic, recover the RTG and sent it
> away for reprocessing and possible re-use. At least that's what
> happened the last time a rocket with an RTG on it exploded during
> launch.
>
> Worst case scenario the RTG falls on someone and kills them instantly.
> These things are designed to withstand launch accidents.
The oft-repeated implication that the RTG could survive any launch
failure is simply wrong.
According to NASA's own safety study at:
"http://spacescience.nasa.gov/admin/pubs/plutoeis/NH-FEIS_Vol1.pdf";
There was a 0.4% predicted chance of radiological release during
the AV-010 launch. The worst case would have been if the rocket had
blown up on the pad just prior to launch. If that had happened there
would have been a *78%* chance of radiological release. Next worst
would have been If the rocket did a "Full Stack Intact Impact", when
there would have been a 25% chance of radiological release. The pad
impact events would have resulted in big fires that could have resulted
in a "partial vaporization of PuO2" (see around page 119 for example).
If that had happened, cleanup could have taken months or years and
cost something like $1 billion per square mile of contaminated zone
downwind of the pad. (On New Horizons launch day, BTW, the VAB
with all of NASA's space shuttle infrastructure, ended up being
directly
downwind from the New Horizons launch pad. Think about that for a
moment).
The odds of release were very low, but they were not zero. The Cape
has seen pad explosions before. Search for the AC-5 launch video to
see a vivid example of the "worst case".
- Ed Kyle
.
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