Re: What chance to you give for many to reach mars in the next 50 years?
- From: henry@xxxxxxxxxxxxx (Henry Spencer)
- Date: Wed, 5 Jul 2006 19:12:01 GMT
In article <44a23374$0$2899$afc38c87@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
Dac <void@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
50%? 20%?
Chance for it being done by NASA and its counterparts: nearly 0%.
They'll never get funding for it. Had they done ISS quickly and
efficiently, the odds would be good; they didn't. Were they doing the
return to the Moon quickly and efficiently, there would at least be a
chance; so far, at least, it looks like business as usual and pork for all
the dinosaurs.
Chance for it being done privately (commercial or non-profit): nearly
100%. Certain other things have to happen first -- notably, a massive
drop in launch costs -- but we're at least started down that road, and
fifty years is a long time.
I guess the answer is really what chance is there that a space
race will develop...
Zero unless another Cold War develops, and not high even then. Don't kid
yourself: the space race of the 1960s was about politics, not space. It
happened only because the competition between the superpowers was briefly
focused on who could do spaceflight more impressively. It's very unlikely
that that will happen again, not least because potential competitors for
the US are aware of what happened last time.
--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. | henry@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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