Re: Physicist James Van Allen Dies at 91

Derek Lyons wrote:

Apples and oranges are real too Henry. That doesn't mean comparisons
between them are valid.

No, the comparison is entirely valid. What Henry didn't mention, but
has alluded to elsewhere, is that the need for manned presence is
entirely dependent on the environment.

For routine reconnaissance, whether from earth orbit, lunar orbit, deep
space or elsewhere, unmanned craft are overwhelmingly effective. The
environment is predictable, the sensors and actuators required to
execute the mission are amenable to automation, and the craft will
encounter few surprises. There is no particular advantage to manned
presence, and crew support functions carry significant overhead.

It's when the above assumptions break down - that is, when the
environment is unpredictable, the sensors and actuators required to
execute the mission are not as amenable to automation, and the craft
will likely encounter surprises, that one will require some form of
human presence to help sense, decide, or act.

While teleoperation has made tremendous strides in recent years, it's
still expensive and, the fact is, in many circumstances, it's still
quite limited. This is particularly true when long propagation delays
are encountered. Moreover, one can't overcome such limitations simply
by throwing money at them. In spite of what you might have seen on
television or the movies, it will require time and effort over a long
haul to develop the appropriate theory and techniques.

As telepresence, in whatever form, improves, the argument for manned
presence will diminish. For now, however, it's still not quite there.

--
Dave Michelson
davem@xxxxxxxxxx























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