Laying the Groundwork for Mars

From: John Savard (jsavard_at_excxn.aNOSPAMb.cdn.invalid)
Date: 06/07/04 

Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 02:08:05 GMT

Having astronauts in space stations for long periods, and sending
probes to Mars to study it closely do seem to be steps that were
leading, all along, to a manned mission to Mars.

But right now there doesn't seem to be any compelling reason to rush
such exploration, as existed in the case of the Moon after Sputnik.

In fact, the idea of going to Mars right now probably seems crazy to
many people right now, and so many feel that George W. Bush's plan for
space exploration will lead only to the cuts in other elements of the
space program, and not to any positive results.

Under what conditions would a manned mission to Mars not seem plain
silly?

Look at the low unemployment rates of the 1960s, compared to what we
have now, in the post-1973 world. This is the problem; we dare not
stimulate the economy enough to create full employment, because this
would increase imports - we have no way to increase exports at will;
people will buy American products if they please.

Even the American hardball approach to trade negotiations can't
disguise the basic fact of today's world economy. Japan and Europe
cannot just send themselves into debt, and they have to buy huge
quantities of oil from the Middle East. They can only make up for this
by having a positive balance of trade with the United States - which,
presumably, will make this up through Arab investment in Hollywood
studios.

The United States, after all, would not prefer that Europe and Japan
balance their trade by selling the Middle East the one thing it is
willing to import - weapons to attack Israel.

Thus, the *key* to creating the possibility of restoring the economic
boom times of the 1960s, on the basis of which a manned program of
space exploration would be a reasonable thing to do to celebrate
America's success, is *energy independence*.

Ford didn't do it. Carter didn't do it. Even Reagan didn't do it, but
by then the idea had slipped from the agenda.

Aggressively pursue fusion power. And there's also the thorium breeder
as a reasonably long-term energy source likely much closer to being
made practical. That would be a scientific research program that would
make sense to people in terms of their daily interests, their real
needs. Make it possible to create more jobs, the one true remedy to
serious social problems.

Then, a mission to Mars would be what it should be - something to
provide inspiration - not something to lead to derision.

No, it wouldn't have made sense to wait to go to the Moon until all
Earth's social problems were solved, nor does it make sense to treat
Mars that way. But economic conditions have to be at least such as to
give a foundation for hope and optimism. Right now, there seems to be
no end in sight to chronic unemployment and underemployment, even if
there are small fluctuations upwards now and then.

John Savard
http://home.ecn.ab.ca/~jsavard/index.html

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