Re: global warming: is it us, or is it the sun?

From: Perplexed in Peoria (jimmenegay_at_sbcglobal.net)
Date: 07/24/04


Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 04:55:35 GMT


"Henry Spencer" <henry@spsystems.net> wrote in message news:I1Bs4B.A6H@spsystems.net...
> Whether or not you believe that modest amounts of artificial
> global warming are already present, there is no reasonable doubt that
> adding tens of terawatts of fossil-fuel power will produce very large
> amounts of it.
>
> Moreover, preventing this -- or even restraining it enough to offer some
> hope that climate effects will be modest -- is really hard; trying to
> regulate it away, e.g. Kyoto, is like ordering the tide not to come in.
> Already, 80% of annual CO2-emissions growth is in developing nations in
> Asia, not in the industrialized Western world.

Amen. Though the bulk of the emissions, if not the growth, is still in
the West and the former Soviet bloc.

> This is a technological problem, not a regulatory one:

But here I have to disagree. It is at least partially a regulatory
problem. I am not talking about "clean up emissions and improve
power generation efficiency" regulations here. That idea is absurd.
But a part of the solution has to come from reducing the growth in
demand, and regulation (including carbon taxes) can play a role here.

The only technological fix that has a hope of making a dent in the
problem in the time frame required is nuclear breeders. And it is
wrong to suggest that the problem here is merely technical - it is
also regulatory, in both positive and negative senses.

> [I]f we're going to
> even contain this, then by mid-century, we need to be commissioning
> perhaps a terawatt a year of CO2-neutral primary power sources. None of
> the current ideas for how to do that is within current technology, if only
> because of scaling issues.



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