Re: New heavy lifter?

From: Rand Simberg (newsgroups_at_transterrestrial.com)
Date: 07/28/04 

Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 21:05:04 GMT

Derek Lyons wrote:

>>>HOW would you refuel the things? Would the comsat owner REALLY want to
>>>risk his sat being wrecked by docking maneuvers?
>>
>>If the satellite costs were dramatically lower, and the choice was that
>>or running out of propellant, why not?
>
>
> You confuse two different things. 1- the cost of the bird and 2- the
> amount of revenue it produces. While we here in s.s.* concentrate on
> the amount that launch costs contribute to 1-, we must not forget that
> is but one piece of the entire cost model.

Again, if the choice is between a docking for refueling, and loss of the
vehicles because it's out of fuel (which would also result in an end to
the revenue stream) they'll obviously take the risk.
>
> Even if you reduce the cost of the bird by an order of magnitude or
> more, losing it to a docking/refuelling accident means the loss of the
> same revenue as today. Reduced costs for the bird will (in theory)
> provide an incentive to have spare nearby, but it will still take time
> for them to be brought into operation and that interruption in service
> will cost the operator cash money.

I think that if Orbital Recovery is successful, it's going to have a
major impact on the thinking of the comsat industry. At a minimum,
they'll start to design their satellites to be docked to, and perhaps
refueled as well.

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