Re: Not all X-Prize flights go smooth...

From: Len (len_at_tour2space.com)
Date: 08/12/04 

Date: 12 Aug 2004 15:59:58 -0700

greg@conifold.math.ucdavis.edu (Greg Kuperberg) wrote in message news:<cfg791$41e$1@conifold.math.ucdavis.edu>...
> In article <36dabe8a.0408120534.2bda5a47@posting.google.com>,
> Len <len@tour2space.com> wrote:
> >I believe in a "reasonable calculated risk" approach--especially
> >if the designer is also the pilot. For this reason, I have
> >maintained my second-class FAA medical certificate, in spite
> >of my age (I learned to fly in the Navy during WWII).
>
> I have to wonder what you're really prepared for here. Despite Rutan's
> braggadocio, his group actually has been relatively safety conscious.
> They have to be, or else someone would have gotten hurt already. Even so,
> their famous test flight had an uncontrolled, supersonic 90 degree roll
> on the way up. The pilot was getting ready to meet his maker. Is that
> what you mean by a "reasonable calculated risk"?
>
> Yes, it's your business to decide what risks to take. I just think that
> it would be a waste if you -- or any X Prize pilot -- ended up winning a
> Darwin Award. The only part of it that makes sense to me (in your case)
> is that as you say, it's academic -- you're not really flying.

I think that incremental flight testing is the key
to "reasonable calculated risk." I also believe that
attempting to reduce risk to zero is likely to increase
risk. The breakaway nose of the X-2 never saved anyone
--but it did kill a pilot.

Any legitimate obvious candidate for a "Darwin" award
probably falls outside the definition of "reasonable
calculated risk." However, there has to be a balance of
real risk versus real gain--without letting artificial
perceptions biasing the tradeoff. I think designer-pilots
are in a better position to make objective trades of this
sort.

Manned ELV's are inherently high risk, since--unlike space
transports--they just about preclude increlmental flight
testing. Skipping flight test steps to win a race is,
I agree, pretty dicey and not what I would call a reasonable
calculated risk. When we were unable to raise substantial
funds within a certain time limit, we shifted our emphasis
back to orbital systems. At some point, objectivity goes
out the window.

I think that Lucky Lindy was well nicknamed. I can't
count a plan that relies on staying awake for 33 hours
without an autopilot as a "reasonable calculated risk
--especially when he lay awake the night before worrying
about this problem." However, like everyone else, I'm
certainly glad his flight was successful, anyway. In
this respect, I guess he made the right decision to go
when he did go.

We're working on a subscale version of our Space Van 2008
that calls for very small unmanned expendable stages launched
subsonically from very high altitude. The manned first,
ultralight rocket plane carrier should be inherently low
risk--especially with adequate ground testing and incremental
flight testing. The goal is to keep development costs within
the $5 million dollar accredited investor exemption and still
have a good shot at putting 20-kg satellites into LEO for
a target price of $100,000.

Best regards,
Len (Cormier)
PanAero, Inc.
x@tour2space.com (change x to len)
http://www.tour2space.com

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