Re: Earth's Carrying Capacity

From: John Schilling (schillin_at_spock.usc.edu)
Date: 08/19/04 

Date: 19 Aug 2004 10:20:23 -0700

"Pete Lynn" <pete@peterlynnkites.com> writes:

>"Keith F. Lynch" <kfl@KeithLynch.net> wrote in message
>news:cg15gu$770$1@panix3.panix.com...

>> Evolution is selecting for people for whom standard methods of
>> contraception don't work. In a few centuries, we may be left with
>> no effective means of birth control.

>I doubt it. Greater control of birth timing, might actually be an
>evolutionary advantage. For example, menstruation tends to stop when
>women get too skinny, a naturally evolved and advantageous
>contraceptive.

>I expect human evolution to now select for birth rates that depend less
>on *accidents* and depend more on planned pregnancies, which it theory
>might be more advantageous. Human fertility is no longer primarily
>constrained by available food supply, it is no longer optimal to become
>pregnant whenever possible.

>From the standpoint of maximizing reproductive advantage, it is *clearly*
suboptimal to become pregnant at the rate prosperous and educated people
chose to become pregnant. What babies are produced may be produced at
the optimal time, but if the number of babies produced is zero or one
per woman, as it now is in Europe, no optimization of the timing is
going to offer a net reproductive advantage.

In pursuit of optimal reproductive fitness, then, evolution will seek
some combination of immunity to contraception, increased preference for
childbearing, reduced ability to obtain and keep wealth, and immunity
to education.

If immunity to contraception is the easiest chromosomal hack, it can be
expected to dominate the evolutionary adaptation to declining TFRs.
Not clear that this is the case, but worthy of speculation at least. 

-- 
*John Schilling                    * "Anything worth doing,         *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP       *  is worth doing for money"     *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner *    -13th Rule of Acquisition   *
*White Elephant Research, LLC      * "There is no substitute        *
*schillin@spock.usc.edu            *  for success"                  *
*661-718-0955 or 661-275-6795      *    -58th Rule of Acquisition   *

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Earths Carrying Capacity
    ... >> contraception don't work. ... >> no effective means of birth control. ... > I expect human evolution to now select for birth rates that depend less ... > pregnant whenever possible. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Apology first, Sean
    ... apology is noted and is not accepted, ... Your failure to reply in the "Seanpit's Immunity lesson" ... model of evolution as if it was "evolution itself" to show a ... The whole point, doctor, is that your "in action" requirement ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Paper: Immunity Promotes Virulence Evolution in a Malaria Model
    ... Immunity Promotes Virulence Evolution in a Malaria Model ...
    (sci.bio.evolution)
  • Re: Teenage pregnancy?
    ... pregnant were using contraception at the time they became pregnant. ... One friend had no idea she was pregnant until it was too late to get a legal abortion. ... It also seems to this admitted outsider that those who most stridently oppose abortion also seem to *also* seem to oppose contraception and sex education, as if sex really only does occur inside a marriage that believes that a) sex is only for procreation and b) any children born conceived in marriage are welcome. ...
    (soc.religion.quaker)
  • Re: A womans right to choose
    ... She takes a risk of getting pregnant with or without contraception. ... later, and that child would have existed, maybe in my place. ... have had a better chance of a good life. ...
    (rec.gambling.poker)