Re: SpaceShipTWO is the VSS Enterprise!!!

From: k2 (k2_at_hybrids.com)
Date: 09/28/04 

Date: 28 Sep 2004 10:49:22 -0700

Crunching a few number from the articles on VSS Enterprise. My numbers
are
clearly over simplified estimates as I have no idea what the true
operating costs and expected profit might be.

BUT....It looks rather tuff to me to meet the goal 5 people every 3
days with $190K for 5 years. Perhaps someone with more accounting
ability can pro-rate the per seat costs and establish a typical
operating & profit costs to make
sense of the initial numbers.

With the numbers given, what do you think?

$100,000,000 investment
3000 passengers
$190,000 per seat
5 Passengers & 1 Pilot
Flights from 2007 to 2012 (5 years or 1820 days)

1) @ $ 190K per seat ; *530 x $190,000 = $100,700,000
* # Seats for sales $ to simply match investment $

2) @ $ 190K per seat ; *1500 x $190,000 = 285,000,000
* # Seats for sales $ to possibly include operation costs & profit

3) @ $ 190K per seat ; *3000 x $190,000 = $570,000,000 5.7X
investment
* # Seats stated as target sales

@ $ 100K per seat ; 3000 x $100,000 = $300,000,000 3.0X
investment
@ $ 50K per seat ; 3000 x $50,000 = $150,000,000 1.5X
investment
@ $ 35K per seat ; 3000 x $35,000 = $105,000,000 1.0X
investment
@ $ 25K per seat ; 3000 x $25,000 = $75,000,000 .75X
investment

1) 530 seats / 5 passengers per flight = 106 flights
2) 1500 seats / 5 passengers per flight = 300 flights
3) 3000 seats / 5 passengers per flight = 600 flights

1) 1820 Days / 106 flights = 1 flight every 17 days
2) 1820 Days / 300 flights = 1 flight every 6 days
3) 1820 Days / 600 flights = 1 flight every 3 days

"Dave O'Neill" <daveon@atomic.raz.spam.or.com> wrote in message news:<b2d6d.109046$U04.80915@fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk>...
> "Earl Colby Pottinger" <earlcp@idirect.com> wrote in message
> news:LKOdnTzzkvOFIMXcRVn-vA@look.ca...
> > "Dave O'Neill" <daveon@atomic.raz.spam.or.com> :
> >
> > > "k2" <k2@hybrids.com> wrote in message
> > > news:45495771.0409270728.66ccc763@posting.google.com...
> > > > Looks like we might in fact see a commercial Space Tourism Bus in the
> > > > next few years!!!!!
>
> > > Curious to see what the profile for the 5 seater will be. The models
> and
> > > graphics used were very much SS1 and it will be interesting to see the
> > > impact of the increase in size to the complete vehicle.
>
> > > Completely reusable or disposable Hybrid
> > > > propulsion? At $200K per seat any takers? Rand, Earl?
> >
> > I have already posted what I am willing to pay over a year ago. If I was
> > working for a while up to $25,000. As I am now without a job I would not
> > spend over $10,000 for a trip and only if I get a new job first.
>
> I'll be interested to see the price point in a few years. I popped $5000
> for my Concorde flight and I'm planning a zero gee trip and fighter ride all
> of which are in a similar ball park - so at the moment that's the amount I
> can get away with spending without serious forethought. If I actually spend
> the money on getting a PPL I'd probably spend a lot more just keeping it
> current and maybe buying a part share in a plane - this might change over
> time but I can't see myself spending that much even if it meant no more to
> me than $5K does now.
>
> Dave

Relevant Pages

  • Re: An Empirical Nonlinear Filter
    ... one could say that failure to use capacity could cause a problem in how ... Since there seems to be such interest in how operating costs are handled, ... remains the question of how to compensate for investment. ...
    (comp.dsp)
  • Re: How To Stay Up With The Rising Cost Of Living
    ... fuel costs, material cost and food cost I was getting very concerned. ... investment where key words to me since I had no investment experience. ... Watching prices rise and my income not stay up ... convenience of their home and the internet. ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • Re: How To Stay Up With The Rising Cost Of Living
    ... fuel costs, material cost and food cost I was getting very concerned. ... investment where key words to me since I had no investment experience. ... Watching prices rise and my income not stay up ... convenience of their home and the internet. ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • The War as Investment
    ... The War as Investment ... Unless that investment is called Iraq, ... costs and benefits of investing further, ...
    (soc.culture.zimbabwe)
  • Re: How To Stay Up With The Rising Cost Of Living
    ... fuel costs, material cost and food cost I was getting very concerned. ... investment where key words to me since I had no investment experience. ... Watching prices rise and my income not stay up ... convenience of their home and the internet. ...
    (soc.retirement)