Re: SpaceShipTWO is the VSS Enterprise!!!

From: Earl Colby Pottinger (earlcp_at_idirect.com)
Date: 09/29/04 

Date: Wed, 29 Sep 2004 00:48:17 -0500

k2@hybrids.com (k2) :

> Crunching a few number from the articles on VSS Enterprise. My numbers
> are clearly over simplified estimates as I have no idea what the
> true operating costs and expected profit might be.

> BUT....It looks rather tuff to me to meet the goal 5 people every 3
> days with $190K for 5 years. Perhaps someone with more accounting
> ability can pro-rate the per seat costs and establish a typical
> operating & profit costs to make
> sense of the initial numbers.
>
> With the numbers given, what do you think?
>
> $100,000,000 investment

Where does this number come from? A lot of the R & D is being done now., it
is very likely that followup crafts will costs only a few or even single tens
of millions each. The carrier craft takes off from standard runways so there
is not need to create a spaceport, instead licencing a per existing airport
for space operation has always been HTHL single biggest advantage.

The hybrid rocket can be turned around very rapidly and at low cost. The
nature of the presently used hybrid avoids many safety standards that you
need to meet with all liquid or all solid fuel designs.

> 3000 passengers

Why so few? 5 years * 300 flights per year * 5 passengers per flight equals
7500 passengers - and that is assuming a very small fleet of spacecrafts
(1-3). A single carrier probably could fly every day if needed. A backup or
two makes sure that there can always be a lanuch.

> $190,000 per seat

Ticket prices are already stated as over $200,000.

I really like to know why 100 million and not 50, 75 or 80 million. It
makes a big diffirence.

         Earl Colby Pottinger 

-- 
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