Re: Selective Service begins Hiring, Bush May Reinstate Military Draft

From: John Schilling (schillin_at_spock.usc.edu)
Date: 10/14/04 

Date: 13 Oct 2004 19:14:40 -0700

"Jonathan" <jon@home.com> writes

>Despite the protestations from both sides
>of the aisles, it's quite possible the military
>draft will resume if Bush is reelected.

>The US won't need the draft for this war. But
>if there's .....another war, say with a remaining
>"Axis of Evil" country, we most certainly will
>need the draft.

>The Selective Service has just updated the
>rules...btw.

>http://www.sss.gov/WHHAP.HTM

That points to a web page conspicuously devoid of any
mention of a rules change, and which has not been updated
since April 30, 2002.

The News & Public Affairs page at the same site has been
more recently updated, but the most recent press release
that is not simply a report of compliance rates, dates to
December 18, 2000.

And if there is another war, with a remaining "Axis of Evil"
country or otherwise, the United States will most definitely
*not* need the draft. Quite the opposite. The present
volunteer army might be able to muddle through, outnumbered
but not outclassed, simultaneous conflicts in Iraq and e.g.
Iran, or it might have to yield on one front and come home
to regroup.

With the draft in place, it would be defeated utterly on all
fronts. Just like the last timewe went to war with conscript
soldiers, as you may recall.

And in the thirty-odd years since, weapons have become more
sophisticated, tactics and doctrine more complex and fluid.
Not in all that time, to the best of my knowledge, has an army
of conscripts defeated one of volunteers.

Modern war is a job for small teams of highly trained and highly
motivated professionals. Anybody who hasn't spent the past two
years or so training for the mission, is probably only going to
get in the way, draw fire, and consume resources that could have
gone to support the pros. At best, they are apprentices in the
process of learning enough to make a positive contribution in the
next war. At worst, if they don't want to be there, they are a
demoralizing and corrupting influence on everyone around them.

Draftees, in modern war, are *worse than useless*. The United
States Army, with half a million full-time and three quarters of
a million part-time volunteers, has a certain finite combat strength.
This may or may not be sufficient for the missions that will be
assigned to it in coming years. But every draftee added to the
ranks, *reduces* that combat strength, makes the problem *worse*.

The United States Army knows this, because the United States Army
has experienced this in the worst possible way. Consequently, the
United States Army is absolutely opposed to any reinstatement of
the draft. The talk of such in recent months, has come not from
the Army, but from idiot journalists, idiot academics, and idiot
politicians, who have not paid attention to military affairs the
past thirty years.

It's not going to happen. Not going to happen if Bush wins, not
going to happen if Kerry wins, not going to happen if the Iraq
conflict winds down or escalates into full-blown civil war or
spills over into Iran. Not going to happen if we have to invade
Korea beside all that. Not if the United States Army has anything
to say about it, and they probably do.

Shame on anyone who, knowing this, nontheless peddles fear and
rumors of a renewed draft for fun and profit. 

-- 
*John Schilling                    * "Anything worth doing,         *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP       *  is worth doing for money"     *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner *    -13th Rule of Acquisition   *
*White Elephant Research, LLC      * "There is no substitute        *
*schillin@spock.usc.edu            *  for success"                  *
*661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795      *    -58th Rule of Acquisition   *
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