Re: EELV Cost Almost Doubles

From: George William Herbert (gherbert_at_retro.com)
Date: 10/14/04 

Date: 14 Oct 2004 07:09:28 GMT

 <lou@cadence.com> wrote:
>What are these companies thinking??
>
>The latest AV week, 11 Oct 04, pg. 36, has SpaceX offering 5 tons to
>LEO for $12M, and 5 tons to GTO for $20M. (That's the same class as the
>smaller Delta-IVs). The Delta and Atlas teams can hardly be unaware of
>this. Furthermore, SpaceX is an American company, so many of the
>restrictions that keep the military and government away from other low
>cost rockets do not apply. So what are they thinking?
>
>(a) Ignore SpaceX entirely. However, head-in-the-sand is usually a
>recipe for business disaster.
>
>(b) They hope SpaceX fails. However, wishful thinking is not a great
>business strategy, either

(b') They believe SpaceX must fail, because it's just too hard to
build rockets in their opinion, and therefore SpaceX must be
deluded or miscalculating.

(b'') They believe SpaceX may succeed but its cost structure will
eventually resemble theirs rather than the current rosy predictions,
therefore the market risk is low.

I have heard variations on both of the above from various
Dinosaur personel not specifically responding to SpaceX,
but to other launch startups in the past.

>(c) They plan to abdicate the 5T payload market, and concentrate on the
>Heavy versions for which there is no competition. This worked for the
>Titan family of rockets for a while.
>
>(d) Use the "I don't need to outrun the bear, I only need to outrun
>you" strategy. Here they would assume the government will not allow
>only one launcher, and hence will continue to support one of
>Atlas/Delta even if they are ridiculously expensive. They just need
>to be slightly less ridiculously expensive than their competitor.
>
>(e) They have their skunk works working on low cost rockets. 5T to GTO
>for $20M? Bahh! We'll sell you 6T for $20M. This would be the ideal
>response in a capitalist world, but I doubt it's happening.
>Any insight into their corporate frame of mind??

(f) SpaceX and other Mammals catching up to them and beating them
starting at the low end of the business may offer them the opportunity
to exit the painful and sometimes not very profitable space launch
business sector.

-george william herbert
gherbert@retro.com

Relevant Pages

  • Re: EELV Cost Almost Doubles
    ... What are these companies thinking?? ... Ignore SpaceX entirely. ... Use the "I don't need to outrun the bear, ... They have their skunk works working on low cost rockets. ...
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  • Re: EELV Cost Almost Doubles
    ... >>What are these companies thinking?? ... > They believe SpaceX must fail, because it's just too hard to ... But other small companies such as Orbital have made rockets work. ... The Russians have been building relatively reliable, low cost rockets ...
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