Re: Manned Space Programs

From: Henry Spencer (henry_at_spsystems.net)
Date: 11/08/04 

Date: Mon, 8 Nov 2004 05:54:38 GMT

In article <25464-418EE6F2-428@storefull-3155.bay.webtv.net>,
Richard Alger <daikaiju@webtv.net> wrote:
>It seems to me rather curious, that so many nations have the ability to
>launch equipment to space, but only three have manned space programs. I
>wonder why Japan and the European Space Agency haven't developed manned
>launch vehicles.

Basically, because NASA talked them into participating in the space
station instead of proceeding with separate manned-spaceflight programs.
Both have perfectly adequate launch vehicles; what they lack are suitable
spacecraft. Both are quite capable of building them.

Indeed, despite the station, both have *had* programs to build them. But
both efforts suffered from lack of a clear, agreed near-term mission, and
the result was confusion between developing advanced technology and
building operational vehicles. Efforts which had the budget and technical
depth to build and fly manned capsules fairly quickly and easily, instead
got bogged down in trying to build things with wings, and ended up wasting
large amounts of money and never delivering anything.

>Still, if Spaceship One taught us anything, it's that you can get people
>into space without a NASA sized budget.

Provided that you are not a government agency, and in particular, that
your objective is to get people into space, not to provide jobs for
aerospace dinosaurs. It also helps if you are allowed to accept some risk
of failure; a national megaproject which is so crucial to its sponsoring
agency's future that it *must not* fail will inevitably spend a lot of
money (futilely) trying to absolutely guarantee success.

Besides, the national agencies mostly think Rutan's success was either an
accident or some kind of special case that isn't relevant to them. To
believe otherwise would be to admit that they have been wasting billions
of taxpayer dollars. They will resist such a confession to their dying
breaths. "The Guard dies, but it never surrenders." Instead, they will
assure you that if Rutan was doing *real* spaceflight (and the definition
of "real" will change as necessary, so that successful low-cost private
efforts are always excluded), he too would need to spend billions to get
even marginal results.

>Since I mentioned Spaceship One, are there any plans to fly SS-1 again?

At last report, no. It was built to do a job, and has done it. It'll
fly again only if some other job appears that it could do.

>Or, are any of the other contestants for the X-Prize planning to finish
>/ fly their vehicles?

Their problem all along has been finding funding. Being also-rans, with
no prize money waiting, can only make that harder. It's unlikely to
happen unless the X Prize Cup becomes real and has real money behind it.

Even then, some of the contestants will probably decide that their X-Prize
designs aren't really suitable for ongoing competition, and will either
change design or bow out. (I'm thinking of Da Vinci's balloon launch in
particular: it's a marginal idea even for a competition as unconstrained
as the original X-Prize -- too poorly controlled, too demanding of exactly
the right weather -- and strikes me as hopeless for most anything else.) 

-- 
"Think outside the box -- the box isn't our friend."    |   Henry Spencer
                                -- George Herbert       | henry@spsystems.net

Relevant Pages

  • Re: We can meet all our needs through space development
    ... with each opportunity structured as a separate finance company ... looking for good returns on this money. ... The heavy lift launcher, with its launch facility in New Mexico, will ... satellites, asteroidal survey and development... ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: We can meet all our needs through space development
    ... what is suggested here something with 500 ton LEO capability. ... looking for good returns on this money. ... The heavy lift launcher, with its launch facility in New Mexico, will ... It would be like an oil company leasing land and raising ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Returned 360s
    ... I'm not calling people who buy early 'idiots', if you have the money, ... There is no risk, simply because if a product is not fit for purpose, it ... PSP too, as whenever there is demand, the guy sat on the end of the ... I wager if it was now during the PSP launch still, ...
    (uk.games.video.xbox)
  • Re: top ten reasons therell be faster progress
    ... and there isn't much money in that (in the short term ... weather satellites, mapping satellites, and on and on. ... launch costs were not significant ... Iridium might have been profitable if the costs of keeping the satellites ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: $100 For A HDD? I Hope You Enjoying Remaining In 2nd Place Microsoft...
    ... >> owners don't buy more than a handful of games for it. ... > getting ready to launch, drop the price by $50, or alternatively, leave ... > buying one until they feel they've saved up the money, ... on which games they have at launch day. ...
    (alt.games.video.xbox)
Loading