Re: Getting Mega Projects Done

From: Christian Ramos (cramos027_at_yahoo.com.au)
Date: 11/25/04 

Date: Thu, 25 Nov 2004 01:43:16 GMT

"David Summers" <david@ualmiles.com> wrote in message
news:c730d17d.0411240724.4a7ce1f0@posting.google.com...
> I appear to be having trouble posting this morning - I applogize if
> this comes through in triplicate.
>
> "Christian Ramos" <cramos027@yahoo.com.au> wrote in message
news:<41d09d63$1@news.syd.ip.net.au>...
> > However, what I am still not clear on.

>
> Just to make sure everyone understands, my goal for this thread was
> neither funding, bragging, nor checking of my engineering (that will
> come here eventually, it just wasn't the question I was asking). I
> was trying to get a feel for what needs to be done before seeking
> funding. However, since you ask I will attempt to provide the most
> accurate responses I can without disclosing what I am not ready (in a
> business sense) to disclose.

I understand. I was simply trying to clarify gaps in my knowledge.
Naturally, dont disclose anything that your not comfortable doing so.
>
> > a) Have you or someone else calculated the various structural properties
> > required for the tether material.
>
> Yes - the design has been made on computer, checking for strength,
> durability in cycling, orbital heat balance and others. I have also
> developed several different ways to construct the object, coming up
> with ways to trade cost for risk.

Good. Although, you talk in terms of the design rather than in terms of the
structural properties required for the tether material. I'll make the
assumption that you have this data.
>
> > b) Have you or someone constructed a sample of this material and tested
it
> > and shown it meets these structural properties
>
> I have not, but others have done that for me. I find that I am not
> very good with tooling, and so I have to "hire out" prototype work in
> order to get good results.

Sure, that's understandable. So based on your answers to date, you've
defined the structural properties of the material needed to construct a
tether. You've had a sample of the material constructed and then it has been
shipped out and tested. The results are that the structural properties of
the material you created meet or exceed the parameters required for tether
material
>
> > c) Is the you or someone else an experienced engineer.
>
> Well, that depends - I am not a civil engineer (just a polite one
> ;-}). I have degrees in Electrical Engineering and Computer
> Engineering. Looking at the current state of the art in aerospace,
> however, I believe that an engineer is not necessarily what is called
> for.

This statement sends up all kinds of flags on me. You will need engineering
to design the tether and therefore define the parameters of the materials of
construction. I would think aerospace engineering would not even be
appropriate. You definetly need materials engineers on the material.
Electrical and Computer Engineering are not relevant as far as I can see at
this point.

There are many ideas that could probably work (building an SSTO,
> and then adding a first stage if the mass fraction doesn't work,
> etc.), but there are no businessmen around that understand the
> technology enough to make wise decisions.

They have people to do that for them.

> That's why my questions
> here were business questions - and why I am going back to school to
> get an MBA.

Cant hurt I guess. Although I dont believe your at that stage. I believe you
need to get some engineering help at this point. A point of reality, if you
going to seek 100's of billions of dollars in outside investment, you will
likely have NO role in the management of the project, no matter how many
MBA's you seek. If you had extensive Business experience in that area and in
successfully handling large projects perhaps but even then your likely to be
tied to a veto wielding overseer and have no real control over the project.

> As I said, I'm not sure that an engineering degree is a prerequisite
> to develop some interesting stuff anymore - I've learned far more from
> the Internet than I learned studying for my EE degree.

OK. Now all my lights are red. While the internet can be a great experience,
it does not substitute for field knowledge and comes nowhere near actual
experience. It might not stop you designing cool things, but you will need
experienced engineers to actually make it more than a paper dream. If your
unable to do that yourself, their are many respectable engineers you can
hire.

> There is a LOT
> of information available on the internet about aerospace design (of
> course, at a low SNR). There is almost no information about the
> business aspects. (Thus this thread)

Your not anywhere near the business stage at this point I believe. Your at
an engineering stage, I think, you should consider looking out for a
consultant engineer and have them verify your calculations and work, at
least on the materials issue. You wont get near an investor otherwise, and
if you do the first thing they do will be to send your numbers to their own
consultant engineers at your expense. The second thing they would likely do
is have an experienced business manager take over you side ;)

>
> > d) Do you have all the paperwork for the calculations and test results
>
> Paperwork?!? Never! It is all on computer, far easier to keep up
> with design modifications that way. Besides, that would be a LOT of
> paper to keep track of!

That's paperwork. Dont take it literally, besides get used to real paper if
you project ever gets going, the paperless office is actually an office that
uses more paper than a normal office in my experience. I assume this
includes the results of the material tests etc. Which would have also
generated it's own paper stream right??
>
> > This is the longer form of what I meant by "send me a sample of the
> > material".
>
> You gots sum wird mean'ns, tere. ;^}

Yes and no. The basic question that it answers is whether this is a
paper/computer idea or is this an idea with substance. At this point I would
lean to the former.
>
> I have done a lot of work on this project - there remains a lot more
> to do! (Orbital shearing stress calculations, reentry calculations
> (just in case), etc.)

If you havent done all the stress calculations as yet, I become a bit
skeptical that you could already have the material issues worked out, but
then I'm not an engineer :)

>I know that no matter how long I work on this,
> it be never be "done," so I'm just trying to find out when "good
> enough" is. For many on this thread, good enough is right now - but
> they are not people with money laying around waiting for a project
> ;-).

Noone has $500 billion laying around. And it's unlikely a single company
would take on the funding itself even for a low risk venture with high
returns. This is not a low risk venture with indefined returns!

  The other question is whether my future work should be
> qualifying the existing design (lowering risk), or if I should work on
> lowering the implementation cost. What is an acceptable cost, what is
> accepable risk?

If as you say the engineering is done, I would still recommend a small proof
of concept. Noone is going to be interested in a paper design, it certainly
wont pass diligence at least.
>
> The question is, how much do you need done in order to get funding -
> idea, engineered design, prototype, small model, large model, full
> production version. Obviously an idea is worthless and if you have
> the full production version then you don't need investment. When is
> it appropriate to seek funding, in your opinion?

How long is a piece of string. You need to do enough to convince a investor
that your idea is viable. I'd say proof of concept, that is a physcial piece
of hardware that demostrates the capabilities that will be required for the
full version. As to the business case that's different. On a $500 billion
investment, I cant conceive of any market that would give a sufficient
return on the investment in an appropriate time, but then I dont know the
details of your plan.
>
> BTW, Many people have answered - you can't get funding without
> explaining your design. That is absolutely true, however you also
> need to understand the corolary - if I "bare all" to someone that
> doesn't have (or control) money, I still get no funding. I would love
> to tell you all, but the risk to benefit ratio is not in my favor.

You need to go with your instinct. Although, I would recommend talking to a
consultant or advisors in the area, the world doesnt always work the way we
think, another difference between the Internet and real field experinece ;)

 For example, I tend to work in multiple industries and multiple areas, so
while I could sign your NDA, you'd also be signing a document of mine that
in a nutshell says, you have no claim if I work on something similar in the
future ;)

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