Re: Northrup Grumman - CEV Prime

From: Edward Wright (edwright2000_at_hotmail.com)
Date: 11/27/04 

Date: 27 Nov 2004 15:11:30 -0800

"Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@hotmail.com> wrote in message news:<1101537386.174529.203210@f14g2000cwb.googlegroups.com>...

> >Musk's Falcon can launch a Gemini-class capsule.
>
> No it can't. The only flight-rated Falcon that SpaceX has
> completed (and that it has not yet attempted to fly) is rated
> to orbit less than 1/5th of the mass of a typical Gemini.

I suggest you read the SpaceX web site.
 
> There is talk of a bigger Falcon launcher, but I've seen no
> assembled hardware. Have you?

So, that means it will never be built? You have some very strange
logic.

> Even Mr. Musk admits that there
> won't be a bigger Falcon if the little one can't be
> made to work. And if history is a predictor, success for
> the little Falcon is a 50-50 proposition at best.

You have a talent for picking numbers out of thin air.

> It is a ballpark estimate for a Gemini-class launch *vehicle*
> that is grounded in past results.

No, it's grounded in nonsense comparisons and arithmetic errors.

> consider the $6.2 billion (2003 dollars)
> that the Gemini program cost NASA ($517 million per mission).

Again, you assume no one can ever do anything cheaper than the
government.

Do you think computers still cost millions of dollars because that's
what UNIVAC cost?

> Mr. Musk, who is expecting to spend $100 million of his own money
> on Falcon development [1], might want to make note of the fact
> that Project Gemini costs tripled from original estimates.

So, if one project runs 200% over budget, you think all projects must
run 200% over budget?

> Or consider the $800 million Kistler spent to build 3/4ths of one
> launch vehicle before it went bankrupt. Wasn't Kistler part of
> the great private enterprise movement that was supposed to get
> stuff into space for far less money than the status quo?

The key word is "part of."

Let's see. Montgomery Wards went bankrupt. So, you must think all
department stores will go bankrupt, right? Therefore, unless NASA
builds a department store, all department store shopping in the US
will come to an end?

> The history of such private space program efforts is pretty
> consistent and can be summed up in one word: Failure. Failure
> on a scale that far outpaces NASA's failure rates.

You must live in an alternative universe. When did private enterprise
spend tens of billions of dollars trying to develop a Shuttle
replacement, with nothing to show for it?

Why is SpaceShip One a failure? Because it didn't confirm your
preconceived notion that only governments can do it?

> Why should we expect this approach to suddenly produce results?

Because your facts don't correlate with reality.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Its In-Line (Shuttle Derived)
    ... or SpaceX will cease to exist once Elon Musk's ... SpaceX believes in their cost figures ... enough to offer to sign fixed-price contracts for Falcon V flights; ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Boeing-Lockheed EELV Joint Venture
    ... Kistler K-1 and/or SpaceX Falcon V might compete against ... by combining operations Space Launch Alliance ... - roughly the cost of one EELV launch. ... SpaceX already has $100 million, maybe more, in development ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Boeing-Lockheed EELV Joint Venture
    ... I got it from the SpaceX web site (the "Falcon Overview") ... range fees that vary by launch location. ... because the cost ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: interesting update on Falcon I
    ... Statement of Elon Musk at House Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee ... What is the SpaceX Business Plan? ... However, the Falcon I, which has the ... We already have three firm contracts for launch and expect ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: SpaceX Thought experiment -a Saturn V class vehicle within 10 years?
    ... >> The new update at SpaceX has got me cogitating. ... >> have a GLOW ~500,000 lbs. ... >> The next obvious step would be a Falcon X, ... And a price 1/6th as high to launch. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
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