Re: Getting Mega Projects Done

From: Henry Spencer (henry_at_spsystems.net)
Date: 11/28/04 

Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 05:43:44 GMT

In article <c730d17d.0411272027.775f38f5@posting.google.com>,
David Summers <david@ualmiles.com> wrote:
>> ...New markets
>> are needed, and they are all quite speculative: even if you can be fairly
>> sure that certain markets will appear, their size is quite uncertain.
>
>I believe that this is the big risk factor. What can be done to
>mitagate this?

I think you have to plan on growing the markets as part of growing the
business, which really puts a premium on low up-front cost because it's
going to take a while to recover a sizable investment.

>The only things I can think of are matching existing
>launchers as much as possible.

If anything, that's a bad idea, because the people behind the existing
launchers have political and financial clout that you lack, and you don't
want to be seen as competing directly with them. (This was one of Beal's
mistakes.) Ideally, you want them snickering at you. You want to be well
established and profitable before they start taking you seriously as
competition.

>How believable are the market surveys that have been floating around? Is
>it even possible to get credible predictions using surveys like that?

I haven't looked closely at them... but my gut feel is that they score
well qualitatively but not quantitatively -- they're useful ammunition for
establishing the presence of a market, but their estimates for its size
must be considered very uncertain.

>> And there is political risk, because there are unresolved regulatory and
>> liability issues galore, plus the possibility of government-sponsored
>> competition, plus the possibility of adverse legislation in general...
>
>The political risks are very real, but big money always trumps
>politics - or at least immobilizes them.

Unfortunately, big money is something an innovative launch scheme is
unlikely to attract. It's necessary to plan on getting results with only
small money, and that means you can't buy very many politicians. 

-- 
"Think outside the box -- the box isn't our friend."    |   Henry Spencer
                                -- George Herbert       | henry@spsystems.net

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Putin Warns Politically Active NGOs
    ... > Putin Warns Politically Active NGOs ... since the US uses NGOs for achieving self-advantageous ... > Putin said he had been briefed that "money is being allocated for concrete ... > reacting to "the shadowy financing" of NGOs that had gotten into politics ...
    (soc.culture.russian)
  • The Buying of "Democracy" Agents in Cuba
    ... Unequal Exchange and the Buying of "Democracy" Agents in Cuba ... "The populace may hiss me, but when I go home and think of my money, I ... "demonstration politics" then do not get pay as much as those who do. ...
    (soc.culture.cuba)
  • Re: I Dont Get It
    ... Money and politics are to blame? ... How many ACTUAL FUCKING BOMBS EXPLODED, KARL? ... The history of intersect violence is long in that country....you have ...
    (rec.martial-arts)
  • Re: COLA for social security
    ... monies elsewhere. ... and address them as the facts they are - not politics, ... us exactly how much money there is and the various solutions. ... costs so it doesn't really apply to the point of 'raided' funds. ...
    (alt.support.arthritis)
  • Re: Putin Warns Politically Active NGOs
    ... :> Putin Warns Politically Active NGOs ... Russia is raising a whole population of NGO lovers. ... :> Putin said he had been briefed that "money is being allocated for ...
    (soc.culture.russian)