Re: Mars vs Moon :-)
From: William Mook (william.mook_at_mokindustries.com)
Date: 12/14/04
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Date: 14 Dec 2004 01:32:19 -0800
We need to commit our species to becoming space-faring.
We need to understand the core economics, economic metric, driving
space development.
We need to understand how the development of that metric creates
opportunities for wealth creation.
We need to organize markets to take advantage of that wealth in a way
that fosters the natural business development of space based assets and
resources.
COMMITMENT TO BECOME SPACE FARING SPECIES
All species exist in a range, and are shaped and constrained by that
range. Humanity is unique in the animal kingdom in that it uses
technology to extend its range. Humans are evolved from lowland apes.
Without the technology of fire, clothing, and shelter, humans could not
exist beyond the tropics. With these technologies we have expanded to
the ends of the Earth. Humans are competitive as are all other
animals. Humans are also cooperative - unlike other animals. This
cooperative instinct evolved in the last 2 million years as humanity
moved beyond Olduvai Gorge and worked cooperatively in
family/clan/tribal groups to jointly exploit the resources created at
the frontier of human settlement. This has shaped our emotional,
intellectual, and spiritual landscape. Joe Campbell speaks of the
monomyth, which is a mythic form of exploration and settlement of the
frontier. It reflects a deep seated understanding of what it takes to
survive as human beings - and this requires a frontier made available
through technical means which offer riches far beyond those in the
center. In myth the riches are spiritual and occur in a transcendent
realm. In mundane reality the riches are real and occur in the
frontier created by new technical means. Since reaching what some
historians have called the 'omega point' in human affairs (the total
filling of the earth and all its ranges by humans) our frontiers have
ceased to play a role in practical affairs. As a result, we have
become more competitive and less human. This trend will ultimately
lead to a collapse in human numbers as we expend resources on Earth,
and the rise of a post-technical, neo-human species - whose relation to
the frontier and technology are distinctly different than humanity's
current relationship. It is only by re-establishing our relationship
to the frontier that we can preserve the continued development of
technology in the classice tradition, and our human capacity for deep
and meaningful cooperation on a planetary and if lucky, an
interplanetary scale.
THE CORE ECONOMIC METRIC OF SPACE TRAVEL
Can we derive benefit from space development? The conventional wisdom
is that we cannot. The conventional wisdom has held since Eisenhower,
that space is fascinating for all the reasons outlined above, but that
fascination results in pointless spending and wasting of vast efforts
to develop an unrewarding desert that will never yeild anything near
what it costs to develop. The only President to spend more than 1% per
year of US GDP on space travel, was assasinated. Since achieving that
President's goal of landing a man on the moon, US has held spending at
or below 1% of GDP. The efforts since that time are largely for show
with no real fundamental science being done. The discussions avoid any
real discussions of the core economic metric. In fact, there has
developed a policy in the US to contain and constrain the commercial
development of rockets since such development threaten to proliferate
missile technology which is considered a threat nearly equal to that of
the proliferation of nuclear weapons. All talk of going to Mars and so
forth is within this model of space development. It is therefore
counterproductive to real development.
The core metric of space development is the cost of momentum. Momentum
is velocity times mass. The cost of attaining momentum falls with the
investment in rocket technologies. The physics of rockets indicates
the range of values possible over time. This analysis was first done
by RAND in the 1950s following Sputnik, and previous to that after
debriefing the German rocket scientists from Project Paperclip
Generally speaking cost of momentum is inversely proportional to the
square root of the exponential of specific impulse. Specific impulse
ranges for the following rocket assemblies;
CHEMICAL
Solid Propellant 250 sec *BOOSTER ROCKET
Liquid Propellant 450 sec *SPACE SHUTTLE
NUCLEAR
Nuclear Thermal 850 sec *NERVA
Nuclear Pulse 2,000 sec *ORION
Micro-nuclear Pulse 100,000 sec
SOLAR
Laser Thermal 1,000 sec
Laser Pulse 5,000 sec
Laser Light Sail INFINITY
ORGANIZING THE MARKETS FOR SPACE DEVELOPMENT
Since the velocity to move a payload from the Earth's surface to any
point in space is well defined, we can even predict the development
path of space faring technology as the cost of momentum falls.
The size of payloads increases for a buck as the cost of momentum
falls. The speed of payloads increases for a buck as the cost of
momentum falls. So, we can produce the following general development
arc;
Small suborbital payloads - HIGH COST, CHEMICAL ROCKETS
Moderate orbiting payloads
Large translunar payloads
Very large interplanetary payloads
Very very large interstellar payloads - LOW COST, LASER LIGHT SAILS
We can also develop the following practical uses for each of these
payloads;
ICBMs
Comsats, spysats, navsats
Apollo
The first has made of the US (and formerly of the Soviet Union) a
superpower. The US seeks to maintain its superpower status. The
second has been of some commercial success. The third, is considered
politically useful, but economically a waste.
Since anything that occurs beyond the surface of the Earth transcends
the Earth, it is viewed by all people of Earth in pretty much the same
way. So, we have viewed the development of ICBMs as the rise of a
global warfare capacity capable of striking anyone anywhere. We ahve
viewed the development of communications from space as a global
communication utility - the internet is in part supported by space
communications. We have viewed the development of navigation
satellites the same way - GPS. Similar systems of intelligence,
analysis, and so forth have arisen, but these have remained classified.
Together they are all 'infosats' and the create a 'noosphere' of
knowledge and information about Earth. Intelligence operations have
recently begun using the 'global information environment' to exercise
control during periods of infowar. The extent and nature of this usage
is again classified.
We can identify economically useful global utilities, the technology
needed for the development of each, and even the range of economic
values needed to achieve the creation of those global utilities. It
should be the role of government policy makers not to obstruct the
natural development of these utiltiies, but rather, to understand and
use these utilities to fulfill the proper role of governments to
maintain peace, prosperity, and unity as humanity develops.
THE WARFARE UTILITY - ICBMs - Global Peace - 1950s
THE INFORMATION UTILITY - infosats - Global knowledge - 1960s
THE ENERGY UTILITY - powersats - Global energy - 1970s*
*NOTE powersats were proposed but not developed in the 1970s.
The first was developed in competition with the former Soviet Union.
The Soviet Union by ignoring fundamental economic limits suffered
severe economic collapse basically releasing tens of thousands of
nuclear missiles from any real control. The central threat to humanity
at the present moment is control of these loose nukes. The current war
on terror can be considered setting the stage for doing whatever it
takes for the US to monitor and control these weapons no matter where
they're found. The end result will be a sustained period of peace.
Prior to the development of the Warfare Utility the world saw two
global wars. After the development of this utility, no global wars
have been fought. The post-war period following world war two is
largely one of great wealth for the US, Europe and Japan. This is due
in large part to the extended period of peace. Maintaining global
peace will continue to pay huge dividends to humanity.
The second developed commercially based on ICBM technology converted
to space travel. The global information utility is still growing along
with computer technology. We moved from point to point communications,
then on to one to many communications, and ultimately, we will have
many to many communications - all the while as broadband increases. We
will also improve sensing technology, along with our ability to record
information - to the Rayleigh limit, creating very detailed analysis of
what's occuring on Earth. Ultimately, we will be able to use
telerobotics and telepresence to work anywhere on Earth from anywhere
else on Earth using a network of laser beam connected satellites
beaming wideband cells across the Earth's surface. We will also be
able to use space sensing and space signalling to navigate with
precision and carry out tasks like crowd control, and even solving
crimes from space. (Laci Petersen's murder could have been caught on
tape with the systems that are ultimately possible)
Communications and intelligence have huge economic benefits which
easily pays for their development and creates a cohesive environment
for the natural development of a global market and global business.
Large reusable boosters lower the cost of momentum to the point where
powersats are possible. These collect sunlight in space and beam that
energy in the form of a MASER or LASER beam depending on cloud
conditions to users on Earth. In this way, unlimited amounts of power
can be delivered anywhere its needed at arbitrarily low costs. The
economic benefits of this process easily pay for its development. The
creation of a global powernet displaces our use of oil and other
chemical fuels, ending this source of pollution.
The commercial development of a large reusable Nova class booster
capable of cost-effectively putting up the elements of a powersat
network, would make manned exploration of the solar system for 1% of
GDP possible.
Once significant power is generated in space, especially solar powered
lasers, we can consider further economic development of more advanced
space faring technology.
THE TRANSPORTATION UTILITY - suborbital ballistic travel - (LSD
rockets)
THE MANUFACTURING UTILITY - captured asteroids (Orion rockets)
THE RESIDENTIAL UTILITY - orbiting homes - (O'Neil space colonies)
Laser sustained detonation rockets powered by solar pumped lasers in
orbit, permit the widespread use of ballistic missiles as everyday
transpotation devices. Their operation will be totally automatic and
safe. This means packages as well as people, can be delivered anywhere
in minutes for pennies per pound. The benefits of a quiet, safe,
secure, and low-cost global transportation system - that uses no roads
or surface infrastructure to operate are sufficient to pay for the
development of this space faring capacity.
It takes just a small amount of additional energy to put an object in
orbit. So, if the world's population could travel from one side of the
Earth to another, they could also attain orbit. But, without any
resources in orbit, there is no point.
However, nuclear pulse rockets are capable of deflecting the course of
asteroids. This can be used to safeguard the Earth from an errant
asteroid. Nuclear pulse technology can also be used to bring rich
asteroids into Earth orbit. When combined with space power and space
communication to drive telerobots from Earth - this permits the
creation of a manufacturing utility which is capable of supplying all
people of Earth, and employing all people of Earth, from space.
The value of this manufacturing operation easily pays for its
development.
Once the resources are available in abundance in orbit, and devfeloped
economically, space residences will naturally be devloped and people in
larger numbers will find themselves living on orbit.
DIASPORA
Once the bulk of humanity lives beyond the surface of Earth, the idea
of global utilities lacks any real value in organizing thoughts about
future development. Once people live in large space stations, its only
a matter of time before falling costs yeild technologies to move those
stations easily across the solar system. This will be the golden age
of interplanetary development, when people will take laser sustained
detonation rockets from planetary surfaces to their mobile homes in
space. There, they will take their personal space colonies, tended by
hordes of fully autonomous robots, planet to planet. This will set the
stage for the development of laser light sail based interstellar
travel.
This re-creates the conditions of humanity at Olduvai gorge. Small
families/clans/tribes move outward from the center toward the frontier
to make use of the tremendous resources at the frontier, leaving the
center behind In this way, humanity will spread from the Solar System
to the ends of the galaxy, in about 1 million years - the same amount
of time it took primitive humans to move from Olduvai Gorge to the ends
of the Earth.
Along the way other developments may occur to allow travel beyond the
galaxy;
SCIENCE FICTION
Beyond 'slowboat' interstellar travel (along the lines envisioned by
Bernal and others) is the potential to create really revolutionary
transportation technologies. These are conjectural right now, but they
are exciting possibilities. Objects colliding to create an implosion,
if moving greater than 1/3 light speed, have the potential to create
tiny subatomic black holes. Black holes of this type have the
potential to create the basis for a whole new class of engineered
product - one capable of affecting space and time directly.
By coordinating the resources of several star systems, via radio
telescope, several human settlements may engage in a long term program
of research - wherein material is imploded from several different
directions at 1/3 light speed and more, to create a series of
engineered black holes. Studying the results of early tests, advances
might be made. Ultimately, it might be possible to create the means of
tapping into the zeropoint energy using arrays of minature black holes
(black hole dusts) and create self replicating black hole based
machines (including computing machines of immense capacity) If zero
point energy can be tapped in this way, any possible device will become
commonly available. This might include time machines, and superluminal
travel (which is really the same thing), This would give humanity
access to all of time and space - and all dimensions of time and space
(assuming Hugh Everett is right in his interpretation of quantum
physics)
Its interesting to note that the high density of humans found on Earth
today is solely the result of our lack of progress in moving beyond
Earth. As standards of living rise beyond subsistence, population
growth rates decline. As humanity spreads across the cosmos,
population density falls. First, as humans move off world. Next, as
they travel across the solar system. Then, as they travel at sublight
speeds across the galaxy. If we should find ways to move instantly
anywhere and anywhen, and anyhistory - across creation - the number of
humans in any one spot would approximate zero. Whch would answer
Fermi's paradox quite satisfyingly.
- Next message: Damon Hill: "Re: Delta 4 Heavy -- the engine for humans beyond LEO?"
- Previous message: Ted Molczan: "Re: Delta 4 Heavy -- the engine for humans beyond LEO?"
- In reply to: Pete Lynn: "Mars vs Moon :-)"
- Next in thread: Douglas Holmes: "Re: Mars vs Moon :-)"
- Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ]
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