Re: US/Russia Space Troubles

From: Charles Buckley (rijrunner_at_friiSTOPSPAM.com)
Date: 12/31/04 

Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 14:21:11 -0700

Joann Evans wrote:
> Ed Kyle wrote:
>

snip

>>
>>I'm starting to think that it is time to shut it (ISS/STS) down.
>>To restructure NASA and start, with some clean-slate ugency,
>>whatever comes next. My opinion solidified when I read a Pravda
>>story yesterday that said, in essence, that Russia should work
>>to beat the US to Mars.
>>
>> - Ed Kyle
>
>
>
>
> Try not to find yourself unintentionally in league with those who
> would be quite content with shutting down NASA manned space activities,
> and replacing them with...nothing.
>

Is it okay to intentionally do so?

At some point you have to balance cost/reward. In this case,
maintaining manned space flights in the existing programs is
far more about meeting obligations than any actual benefit
of the program itself. Probably in terms of meeting obligations
it is worth it, but beyond that it is not worth it. If we are having
this problem now, what will it be like in a few years after ISS
completion when Shuttle is not flying and CEV is just starting it's
ramp up of funding? We're looking at a 4 year gap post-Shuttle
now allowing for any schedule shifts. And, if Russia is realistic,
they are going to have to be wondering whether the US will continue
with ISS after the final assembly flight.

Not sure which way this goes though. With or without Shuttle/ISS,
there is going to be a heck of a fight funding any follow-on program.
It might be easier to get funding if it is the only game in town.
But, it is very hard to get any sense of urgency in the program
if you are still flying. We have gone through periods of no manned
US flights before and somehow survived without even having the
option of contracting alternative modes of flight. It is now a question
of when, not if, we enter another period of having no operational manned
vehicles. We can stay in the current one and admit that Shuttle just
is not going to cut it, or we can limp along a few more years and then
enter a scheduled hiatus.

I guess the other question is whether the model of a state run
space agency works. What are its objectives? What is its achievements?
What is its development cycle?

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