Re: longevity in 20 years

From: David James Polewka (joseywales_at_outlaw.nospam)
Date: 01/15/05 

Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 01:47:26 GMT

"Rodney Kelp" <Rodneykelp605@hotmail.com> wrote:

>Our highways are taking care of population growth.

http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html

According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the resident population of
the U S, projected to 01/15/05 at 01:39 GMT (EST+5) is 295,255,139.
COMPONENT SETTINGS

        One birth every.................................. 8 seconds
        One death every.................................. 13 seconds
        One international migrant (net) every............ 26 seconds
        Net gain of one person every..................... 12 seconds

>Vaccines only prevent mass extinction, not increase longevity.

http://www.mathpuzzle.com/superflu.html

Le superflu, chose tres necessaire -- Voltaire
Although the history of flu epidemics is non-mathematical, in this case,
as Voltaire might say, the superfluous is very necessary. In 1918, when
the world population was 1.8 billion, an influenza epidemic
incapacitated 1 billion and killed 20 million, all within the space of 8
weeks. Most of the people who died were in their thirties. For
comparison, 8.5 million people died in World War I (Jun 1914 - Nov
1918), and 55 million died in World War II (Sep 1939 - Sep 1945). In
fact, the turning point of WWI happened while the German Chancellor was
bedridden with influenza. Desiring to wake up fresh, he accidentally
overdosed on a sleeping tonic. During his subsequent coma, the german
defenses collapsed. [Encyclopedia Britannica, 1949]

Can it happen again? In April 1983, a variety of the influenza virus
killed 20 million chickens in Pennsylvania. The virus proved lethal
because of a change in one animo acid. [The Transmission of Epidemic
Influenza, Hope-Simpson 1992] Mild flu epidemics happen every year.
Whenever a large population of non-immunes exists, epidemics can happen.
In 1875, The King of the Fiji Islands returned from a diplomatic trip,
infected with measles. Out of a population of 150 thousand, 40 thousand
died of measles. [Influenza, An Epidemilogic Study, Vaughn 1921]

The spread of flu has a strong mathematical basis. Serfling's model (
(Y=average mortality + trend + 52 week cycle + 26 week cycle + Error) or
(Y = a + b1t + b2cos(p t / 26) + b3sin(p t / 26) + b4cos(p t / 26) +
b5cos(p t / 26) + E ) ), for instance, is used to estimate levels of
influenza. The Kermack-McKindrick model (Susceptibles --rIS-->
Infectives --qI--> Quarantines) can be used to model the spread of an
epidemic. For fun, I used it to model the 1918 virus in today's world.
I collected some data first.

Worldwide influenza epidemics have occurred in the following years:
1732, 1781, 1802, 1830, 1847, 1857, 1918, 1957, and 1968. [Influenza,
The Last Great Plague, Beveridge 1977]. Coincidentally, both the 1957
'Asian' flu and the 1968 'Hong Kong' flu both started during a month of
record breaking sunspot activity. [The Diffusion of Influenza, Pyle
1986]. Here are a few words on the 1918 flu:

    The total mortality of the 1918 epidemic was 0.5 percent of the
population. In a few places the mortality was much higher. In Samoa 25
percent of the people died. The Eskimoes in Alaska suffered terribly;
some villages were wiped out and others lost their entire adult
population. In Nome, 176 out of 300 Eskimoes died. The disease caused
havoc in India where and estimated five million people died. [Beveridge]

When a population is suddenly stricken, uninfected people must work much
harder to maintain the normal quality of available services. In
particular, medical services can be overwhelmed, prompting an increase
in the mortality rate. Remember, when half the population is sick, that
means half the hospital staff is sick. Out of all the major United
States cities, only Boston adequately confronted the 1918 flu. With a
few days notice, the hospitals of Boston worked with city residents to
form an enormous volunteer force. It worked -- the mortality rate in
Boston was much lower than in other cities. [Vaughn, 1921] I wonder if
today's hospitals know this?

One unique feature of the 1918 'Spanish' flu was that it traveled in
waves. Here's what ABC News said about it. The first and last waves
were more or less normal epidemics. It was the second wave, likely a
mutation of the first, that offered a significant mortality figure.
World War I intensified these waves. Massive troop movements, the
development of fronts, and so on -- these factors led to a homogenous
mixing of the human population unlike anything seen previously. In the
present day, this sort of mixing happens routinely and constantly.

Does influenza threaten the existence of mankind? Probably not.
Mutations of the flu virus sometimes have high mortality rates among
avian species, but the 1918 flu is the worst that mankind has had to
face. However, influenza will definitely annoy mankind. (It wiped me
out this weekend.) Mathematical modeling can be used to find ways to
lessen this impact.

> They will soon have a repair for
>the dna responsible for declining cell rebuilding of old age.
>There is no reason a human life can't last 400 years or more. Defective DNA
>is all that is killing us in general, not counting viral invasion and
>accidents.
>
><imbibe@mindspring.com> wrote in message
>news:1105574447.328108.265600@z14g2000cwz.googlegroups.com...
>>
>> James Hollingshead wrote:
>>
>>> "Philip" <quilan@delrio.com> writes:
>>> >
>>> > Philip wrote in message ...
>>> >>Who believs in 20 years we will live to be 200 yrs old and beyond
>>>
>>> I doubt it somehow :(. If you look at what medicine has done it has
>>> not actually increased people's maximum lifetimes - even 500 years
>> ago
>>> there were one or too people who were lucky enough never to get any
>>> serious diseases who made it to 100. Modern medicine / general
>>> improved living standards stop a lot of people dying while they are
>>> still young, but it has made no difference to the maximum limit of
>>> around 100 or so.
>>
>> We need to stop making flu vaccines and stop killing
>> infected birds, so more people can reach a timely and
>> merciful end. We have so many things that were luxuries
>> or nonexistent just 100 or 200 years ago; we should be
>> satisfied with moderate, rather than extreme longevity.
>>
>> --
>>
>
>

=========================
 "Endeavor to persevere"
=========================

Relevant Pages