Re: Large Space Colonies and Large Disasters
From: William Mook (william.mook_at_mokindustries.com)
Date: 01/17/05
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Date: 17 Jan 2005 15:44:41 -0800
Terrell Miller wrote:
> William Mook wrote:
>
> >>See how have a new virus could sweep the
> >>whole world and overload all medical facilities.
> >
> >
> > The world's viruses are already interacting globally through
migratory
> > birds, the oceans, international air transport, international sea
> > transport. The ability of people to visit in a matter of minutes
the
> > same places birds, water, airplanes and boats now visit in a matter
of
> > hours or days or weeks, does nothing to change exposure of the
world's
> > population to viruses.
>
> The more you talk out your ass, Bill, the more people realize what a
> quack you are.
Just as they realize you're an abusive ass?
> There are a lot of germs that rapidly become nonviable outside their
> niche.
So, we don't need to worry about those being transported outside their
niche for that reason.
> Reduce the time between someone getting infected and that
> person's contact with people from around the world, the easier it is
for
> some of those people to get infected themselves. And so on.
You're making some sort of statement about human vectors and their
efficiency as their mobility increases. The statement you make here is
so nebulous its hard to pin you down about just what you're saying.
> Reduced travel time is one of the easiest ways for germs and viruses
to
> spread to other areas outside their normal reservoir.
This assumes among other things that people are vectors, that these
vectors are effective after being transported, that they are able to
travel, that the number of people they can infect is somehow increased
by their travels, and so forth.
While we certainly don't want to spread disease when we can help it, it
is by no means certain that those who can afford to buy or rent private
aircxraft would spread disease any more efficiently than those who can
buy airline tickets today.
> >>If you didn't like a
> >>third of Europe dying over the course of a few years during the
> >
> > Plague
> >
> >>a few centuries ago, how would you like 90% of the world's
population
> >>dying in just a couple weeks due to a new unrecognized strain of
> >>hemorragic fever getting loose?
> >
> >
> > Stuff and nonsense. Both are vector borne diseases which cannot
occur
> > in large outbreaks unless humans are living in close proximity to
the
> > vectors - in both cases, rat populations.
>
> wrong again.
You? Yes.
> Over the last fifty years we've seen a massive increase in
> species-jumping bugs.
Ha! You are confusing increasing knowledge about species-jumping bugs
and rates of disease as it occurs in the world. This isn't surprising
given your confused statements above.
> To give a fairly trivial example, there are
> multidrug-resistant Salmonella serotypes who get their resistance
from
> plasmids (freefloating circular strands of DNA that attach to the
cell
> wall of the bug and block the drugs' inhibitory capability). We are
> starting to see those plasmids shift to other Salmonella serotypes,
and
> in some cases to totally unrelated bugs.
So? The process you describe has nothing to do with rates of disease,
which is what we're talking about. Your description have even less to
do with the impact of long-distant transport of humans and their
impact on rates of disease. It would really help if you'd stay focused
on the subject at hand and not confuse the issue with irrelevant
processes having nothing to little to do with what we're talking about.
> So not only can plasmid-mediated resistance make clinical treatment
> ineffective, but it can also confer equal resistance to other
pathogens
> as well. Nasty stuff.
There are lots of nasty diseases out there. That doesn't make them
candidates for large-scale outbreaks. We're talking about rates of
disease and the impact of long-range travel by humans on those disease
rates. You have yet to accurately state the problem, let alone prove
anything about what I've said.
Sheez.
> > The black death or black plague in 14th century Europe was not due
to
> > broad availability of personal air transport. Clearly, 14th
century
> > Europe did not have personal air transport. Plainly, the black
death
> > was caused by fleas transported by rats which lived in close
proximity
> > to humans.
>
> Plainly, our Bill hasn't read his history:
Obviously Terrell not having properly framed the question I am
answering about the impact of long-distance travel by humans on disease
rates in his mind finds no other recourse than to make abusive
statements about me personally. Tsk tsk.
> * First, the 14th-century plague in Europe was a lot tamer (25
million
> deaths) than the one that spread through the world in the 700s (100
> million died then).
http://www.byu.edu/ipt/projects/middleages/LifeTimes/Plague.html
> * Second, the plague was transmitted by rats *who had hitched a lift
in
> ships*.
Yes. That's right.
> That was the mechanism that allowed Yersinia to spread so
> rapidly and so far.
No, it wasn't the boats, it was the conditions that the affected
populations lived in that caused it to spread. Read the materials
cited above. Only a handful of ships landed in European ports with
vectors for this disease.
Plainly, ships came back from Asia to Europe before then, ships came
back from Asia to Europe after then. Obviously, it was only this
period where disease rates skyrocketed.
The disease spread in 1330 because the conditions were right to sustain
the disease. Population levels, cleanliness, living conditions, all
were right to spread the disease. All had to be right. Transport of
the same vectors before and after did not cause similar outbreaks
because the conditions were not right to sustain an outbreak of the
disease.
If you had any understanding of the rates of disease and the factors
that contribute to changing those rates, you'd see that the boats
travels had little to do with outbreak.
>If the rats had not been transported from port to
> port to port, then the Plague would have affected a very small area
of
> Europe and burned itself out fairly quickly.
Not true.
> * Third, there are two distinct types of plague with two distinct
> vectors and two distinct pathologies: bubonic and pneumonic. Bubonic
> plague is transmitted by infected fleas.
You are engaging in a typical disinformation tactic. Please recall I
was responding to an earlier comment made about Bubonic Plague - there
was absolutely no reason for me to go into pneumonic plague.
> It takes a couple days to
> incubate and can kill up to 75% of infected humans. But by far the
> deadlier and more insidious form is pneumonic plague. It's
transmitted
> by foamate (inhaling an infected human's sneezes), not directly
through
> animal contact; it has a much faster incubation period of 24 hours
(so
> one infected human can start a "chain reaction" pyramid of infection
> before his symptoms become obvious), and it has a higher mortality
rate
> (90%).
Ah, see you have illustrated precisely your ignorance related to
disease rates and other factors. Pneumonic plague was not the great
killer in the Black Death - Bubonic Plague was, despite the lethality
of the pneumonic plague - because the conditions weren't right for the
pneumonic plague to be the greater of the two, despite its greater
lethality under the right conditions! :)
http://campus.northpark.edu/history/WebChron/WestEurope/BlackDeath.CP.html
> Clearly, you need to understand your material a little better.
Um, are you looking in a mirror when you say that? Ha! :)
> > Similarly, viruses causing hemorrhagic fever transmitted to humans
when
> > the activities of vectors and humans overlap. The viruses carried
in
> > rodent reservoirs are transmitted when humans have contact with
urine,
> > fecal matter, saliva, or other body excretions from infected
rodents.
>
> or from exchange of bodily fluids with infected humans, or from
horses
> who have been infected, or from touching surfaces contaminated by
> infected humans, or...
There are lots of ways diseases can be transmitted - but that's not
what we're talking about. We're talking about the conditions that must
be met for diseases to become widespread as in the case of the Black
Death. This confusion on your part with understanding the minutia of
disease processes but not having a clear connection in your mind with
the conditions for an outbreak is a continuing problem with our
discussion. If you weren't so damned impolite I might even take it on
myself to educate you - but I doubt it would be greeted warmly by you
in any case.
>
> > Hemorrhagic fever and plague occur today when people due to severe
> > poverty are forced to live with rodents on a regular basis. Air
> > transport in all cases is notably absent.
>
> give you partial credit: *some* hemorrhagic fever is acquired from
> rodents. Lassa fever and hantavirus are two examples. Other
hemorrhagic
> (just means "accompanied by bleeding") fevers are transmitted by
ticks
> (encephalitis), bats (Hendra, transmitted through infected horses
bitten
> by the bats), mosquitos (Rift Valley fever), etc.
Again, these details have nothing to do with the conditions for major
outbreaks, which is what we were discussing.
> > Obviously, in a world where air transport is commonplace, such
> > conditions that support outbreaks of these two types of disease
would
> > not be present.
>
> erm, we *are* in a world where air transport is commonplace,
that's right.
> and the
> conditions for outbreaks of these types of diseases *are* present.
that's not right - which is my point! :)
> > Clearly the exterior of a ballistic aircraft would be
> > rendered vector free during re-entry.
>
> unless the vehicle happens to pass through foamate just before or
just
> after landing, and then the ground crew gets infected by touching the
> surface, or...
there are lots of ways diseases can be spread - but lacking in all of
your discussion is the rate of diseases being spread and the conditions
under which these rates are high enough to cause an outbreak. WHICH IS
WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT.
>
> > Plainly the interior of a
> > ballistic aircraft could be rendered equally free of vectors
through
> > automated inspection processe.
>
> LOL have you smelled the interior of a 737 lately?
An Airbus actually. It was rather smelly.
Now, here you've again illustrated your ignorance precisely and proven
my point.
You are implying here that smells communicate disease at rates high
enough to cause an outbreak - this is clearly not the case.
I have no doubt that all manner of disease causing organisms live
throughout any large aircraft operated today. Despite that, the
existence of those organisms in those aircraft do not materially impact
the rate of disease and certainly do not increase the rates of disease
to the point where outbreaks are possible.
> > The occupants of such aircraft would
> > obviously be able to pay for transport and would certainly not be
> > living in close proximity to rat feces on a regular basis.
>
> but the street urchins that descend upon arriving passengers at every
> single Third World airport *do*.
Do what? Harbor resevoirs of disease? So? This has little to no
impact on outbreaks of disease. Which is my point.
> Gawd, you're naive Bill :(
Not Naive Terrel, knowledgeable.
> --
> Terrell Miller
> millerto@bellsouth.net
>
> "Every gardener knows nature's random cruelty"
> -Paul Simon RE: George Harrison
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