Re: Current US military thinking on launch needs
From: Douglas Holmes (noholmesdgspam_at_verizon.net)
Date: 02/23/05
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Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 12:03:21 GMT
"Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1109115340.910209.86590@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> Allen Thomson wrote:
>> An interesting PDF slideshow:
>> http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/apio/pdf/cev/11_dod_perspective.pdf
>> DoD Space Transportation Perspective
>>
>
> Here's an abbreviated summary for those who
> don't want to wait the hourlong download.
>
> Air Force wants two EELV's through 2020, at least.
>
> Air Force will launch its last Delta II in FY2007.
> Delta II will then transition to NASA-only.
>
> Air Force plans to add a smaller "Operationally
> Responsive" launcher by 2010. The Falcon
> Demonstration program is the starting point for
> this effort.
This combined with SpaceX shows Lockheed had the right idea to get out of
this market.
Boeing if smart will soon follow and retire the Delta II.
>
> Air Force is moving away from a commercial launch
> acquisition model for EELV, etc. It will now
> use fixed-plus type acquisition.
>
> EELV launch plans show that Boeing Decatur will
> be hurting for years. Atlas V has already been
> assigned an average of at least 4 launches per
> year 2007-2011. Delta IV only has an average
> of one launch per year during the same period.
> *No more launches remain to be assigned for 2007.*
> Only three more EELV missions remain to be assigned
> for 2008. Six or more per year are still up for
> grabs starting in 2009.
The sanctions on Boeing really come across as devastating when shown
in this form. Boeing could be forced out of the launch business if the
sanctions are not lifted before the next buy.
The Air Force, if I counted right, is planning 71 EELV launches before
2014.
This should give a very good safety record even without NASA or commercial
launches.
In 2012-2013 they are planning 20 launches.
Between 2014 and 2019 the EELV launch market could be getting a little
tight.
8-12 Air Force, a few commercial and 10-14 NASA (most for NASA heavies)
could add
up to well over 40 cores.
If SpaceX is competitive in this market as now planned that will not be the
case.
>
> The presentation mentions that the EELVs can
> meet all of NASA's projected needs.
>
Now if they can just convince NASA!
One interesting side note almost all of the launches purchased so far are
smaller rockets.
This is partially caused by still using the Titan but
either the Air Force is going for smaller satellites or
somewhere in Buy 3 and 4 are some large satellites and rockets.
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