Re: Japans Moon Ambitions - They're KIDDING, Right ?

From: Sander Vesik (sander_at_haldjas.folklore.ee)
Date: 03/14/05 

Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 19:06:03 +0000 (UTC)

In sci.space.policy Rand Simberg <simberg.interglobal@org.trash> wrote:
> On 13 Mar 2005 12:20:05 -0800, in a place far, far away, "Will"
> <mclean1382@aol.com> made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
> way as to indicate that:
>
>
> >> >That is debatable. The US airmail was losing a pilot about every
> >> >100,000 miles when it started. On the New York-San Francisco route,
> >> >that's about a 2% fatality rate per trip.
> >>
> >> A NY/SF route consisted of many "trips" (i.e., takeoff/landing) so
> >> that is a gross overstatement of the percentage. And without looking
> >> at the statistics, I suspect that most of those were a result of
> >> weather and primitive navigation equipment, than with reliability of
> >> the aircraft themselves.
> >>
> >
> >If your mission is to get a payload from NY to SF, the measure of
> >relibility is if it performs the trip intact.
>
> And the probability of failing to do so goes up with the number of
> individual flights required to do so, unless the reliability of each
> of them is a hundred percent. Reliability doesn't make sense if it's
> not per flight.
>

Per-mission reliability absolutely makes sense. That all the other subtrips
are perfectly safe gives you no real benefits if the 'land on moon' one
is 75% likely to kill you. 

-- 
	Sander
+++ Out of cheese error +++

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