Re: Sea Launch to Top Atlas

I'd count it as half a failure, and try to do that consistently. There was
an Ariane flight like that, I believe.
If you include the Proton Block-DM flights, of course it's no contest.
Since the beginning of 1991 there have been 119 Proton launches with 7
failures, giving 0.94 achieved success. That's inferior to the Atlas record
in the same period, but Atlas has gone through extensive hardware change in
the period (I to II to II to V). The Proton first stage has a particularly
good record, the last failure being in 1982, with 216 subsequent flights
without failure.

Murray Anderson

"Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1114569432.491190.307960@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Murray Anderson wrote:
> > Not that I disagree with your conclusion, but they probably don't
> count one
> > of the Sea Launch failures on the grounds that the satellite made it
> to the
> > correct orbit.
> > In that case they'd get 0.94 realized rate, 0.88 Bayesian, and still
> lose to
> > Proton.
>
> You may be right, but I think they should count
> the Apstar 5 flight as a launch vehicle failure.
> Otherwise, they're deluding themselves about the
> true reliability of their vehicle.
>
> According to Airclaims Ltd, the Apstar 5 flight
> was a failure. [*see text below]
>
> "www.airclaims.com/Downloads/PressReleases/SpaceLauncherYear2004.pdf"
>
> I think most people in the industry (except for
> the good folks at Boeing who wrote the press
> release that started our conversation) see Proton
> as the most reliable big (~5+ ton to GTO) comsat
> launcher flying today. There have been 313 Proton
> launches (all types) but only 52 Zenit launches
> (all types, including 16 Sea Launch Zenit 3SL/DMSL
> vehicles). Since 1-1-2000, there were 44 Proton
> launches with one in-orbit upper stage failure.
> During the same period, there were only 18 Zenit
> flights with two failures (one an in-flight upper
> stage failure). Compared to Proton, Zenit is a
> newbie that is still being broken in. And, with the
> new Briz-M storable-propellant upper stage
> replacing the troublesome Energia Blok DM, Proton
> reliability should improve.
>
> During the Apstar 5 mission, the DMSL third stage
> shut down 54 seconds early due to a poorly
> understood electrical problem, leaving the payload
> transfer orbit apogee 15,000 km low. Apstar 5 made
> it to geosync on its own, but the launch vehicle
> suffered a failure.
>
> *[text from airclaims press release]
>
> "The overall launch vehicle failure rate,
> having run very low up to the end of 2004,
> suddenly increased with the maiden flight
> undershoot failure of the Boeing Delta IV Heavy
> launch swiftly followed by the third stage
> failure of a Ukrainian Tsyklon 3 rocket.
> Consequently 2004 concluded as an 'averageyear'
> with four launcher related failures out of 54
> flights (7.4%). The other two launcher-related
> failures were the SHAVIT in September which
> dropped Israeli OFEQ 6 spy satellite into the
> Mediterranean Sea and thepremature shutdown of
> a Boeing Sea Launch ZENIT 3-SL (Sea Launch) in
> June, (caused by a short in the fuel system
> electronics), that almost stranded the APSTAR 5
> (TELSTAR 18) commercial communications satellite."
>
> - Ed Kyle
>


.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: staging, reliability, etc. (was Re: Towed Booster Stability)
    ... One D III failure was due to poor judgement by the company in not expending ... of the first flight. ... They appear to now have a mature design and operation. ... But launch ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Second Guessing NASA VSE
    ... 1 failure in 232 launches is about as good as it gets. ... Compared to the in flight SSME failure rate? ... I hate to mention the Challenger disaster, but that launch failure, ... Intact abort is a good thing. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Sea Launch to Top Atlas
    ... > of the Sea Launch failures on the grounds that the satellite made it ... the Apstar 5 flight as a launch vehicle failure. ... release that started our conversation) see Proton ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Proton (Briz) Failure
    ... The Briz M ... This was the first Proton M/Briz M failure in 11 flights. ... It was the third failed International Launch Services ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Proton (Briz) Failure
    ... planned geosynchronous transfer orbit after launch from ... This was the first Proton M/Briz M failure in 11 flights. ... It was the third failed International Launch Services ...
    (sci.space.policy)