Re: interesting update on Falcon I

Here's another interesting SpaceX tie-in:
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=16252

Statement of Elon Musk at House Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee
Hearings on the Future Market for Commercial Space


Statement of Mr. Elon Musk
CEO and Chief Technology Officer
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
Before the Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics
United States House of Representatives

Chairman Calvert and distinguished members of the Committee, thank you
for inviting me to testify today on Future Markets for Commercial
Space. It is an honor to be here. What is the SpaceX Business Plan?

SpaceX is dedicated to improving the reliability and cost of access to
space for the greater purpose of helping us become a true space-faring
civilization. Without dramatic improvement in those two inseparable
metrics, we will never exceed the great deeds our nation accomplished
for all humanity with the Apollo program.

Although the ultimate goal of SpaceX is to provide super-heavy lift and
manned launch vehicles, we have chosen to focus our initial efforts on
a small rocket capable of launching satellites to low Earth orbit. This
vehicle, the Falcon I, is effectively a sub-scale technology test bed,
ensuring that the inevitable errors of development occur on a small
scale and without people on board. However, the Falcon I, which has the
lowest cost per flight in the world for a production rocket and is
entirely American built, is also showing strong market demand in its
own right. We already have three firm contracts for launch and expect
to close another two before Falcon I performs its maiden flight later
this year. Once the Falcon I has a few flights under its belt and the
satellite producers have time to adjust, I think it is quite possible
that there will be more flights per year of Falcon I than any other
vehicle in the world.

It is also worth noting that the Falcon I is the only semi-reusable
rocket in the world, apart from the Space Shuttle. However, reusability
is not currently factored into the price. As we refine that process,
the cost of Falcon I will decline over time. As far as reliability is
concerned, the Futron corporation, which is used extensively by NASA
and the FAA, concluded that Falcon I had the second highest design
reliability of any American rocket. It was tied with the most reliable
version of the Boeing Delta IV and Lockheed Atlas V. The highest design
reliability rank was held by our Falcon V design, which will be the
only American rocket that can lose any engine or motor and still
complete its mission.

The Falcon V, scheduled for first flight next year, is a medium lift
rocket designed to carry people as well as much larger satellites. As
such, the design margins will meet or exceed NASA requirements for
manned spacecraft. My hope is that this vehicle will provide the United
States with an all American means of transporting astronauts to orbit
and ensure that we are beholden to no one once the Shuttle retires.

All in all, I see an increasingly positive future for commercial space
activities over the next five to ten years.

What should the government do or not do to encourage the nascent
commercial space industry? The most important thing that the government
should do is adopt a nurturing and supportive attitude towards new
entrepreneurial efforts. In particular, the government should seek to
purchase early launches as well as offer prizes for concrete
achievements. Evidence for the tremendous power of prizes can be found
throughout history, most recently with the X Prize. Regarding
purchasing early launches, the Defense Department has been very
supportive and has done the right thing at every level, purchasing two
of the four launches we have sold to date. Regrettably, however, NASA
has not yet procured a launch and has provided less financial support
than the Malaysian Space Agency, who has bought and paid for a flight
on Falcon I.

However, I am very much heartened by the recent confirmation of Dr.
Griffin as the new NASA Administrator. I am confident that his
outstanding technical ability, dedication and diverse experience will
invigorate our space program. With a finite budget and entrenched
interests to fight, Dr. Griffin will be forced to make some difficult
decisions in the years ahead. I urge Congress to give its full support
to Dr. Griffin when he does so.

As far as what the government should not do, I think it is important to
minimize the regulatory burden required for space launch activities. We
should do no more than is necessary to protect the uninvolved public.
It sometimes seems to me that our society is paving the road to hell
one regulation at a time.

Are there implications for the commercial space industry as you see it
in the President's announced Vision for Space Exploration?

The NASA budget is unlikely to see significant increases in coming
years and in fact will face severe pressure from entitlements in the
next decade. Compounding the problem, US launch prices from existing
contractors are increasing every year, sometimes significantly. Unless
we can reverse the trend of rising costs, NASA will be placed in a
continually tightening financial vice, accomplishing less and less each
year. Therefore, the only way that our country can meet the President's
Vision in a meaningful way is by encouraging the development of new,
low cost access to space. If we can't afford to get there, the Vision
will become nothing more than a mirage.

About Elon Musk

Elon is the CEO & Chief Technology Officer of Space Exploration
Technologies (SpaceX), which is developing a family of launch vehicles
intended to reduce the cost and increase the reliability of access to
space ultimately by a factor of ten. The company officially began
operations in June 2002 and is located in the heart of the aerospace
industry in Southern California.

SpaceX is the third company founded by Mr. Musk. Prior to SpaceX, he
co-founded PayPal, the world's leading electronic payment system, and
served as the company's chairman and CEO. PayPal has over sixty-five
million customers in 38 countries, processes tens of billions dollars
per year and went public on the NASDAQ under PYPL in early 2002. Mr.
Musk was the largest shareholder of PayPal until the company was
acquired by eBay for $1.5 billion in October 2002.

Before PayPal, Mr. Musk co-founded Zip2 Corporation in 1995, a leading
provider of enterprise software and services to the media industry,
with investments from The New York Times Company, Knight-Ridder, MDV,
Softbank and the Hearst Corporation. He served as Chairman, CEO and
Chief Technology Officer and in March 1999 sold Zip2 to Compaq for $307
million in an all cash transaction.

Mr. Musk's early experience extends across a spectrum of advanced
technology industries, from high energy density ultra-capacitors at
Pinnacle Research to software development at Rocket Science and
Microsoft. He has a physics degree from the University of Pennsylvania,
a business degree from Wharton and originally came out to California to
pursue graduate studies in high energy density capacitor physics &
materials science at Stanford

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