SpaceX Thought experiment -a Saturn V class vehicle within 10 years?

The new update at SpaceX has got me cogitating.

After Falcon V development is complete (LEO throw weight ~13,000 lbs,
GTO 4200 lbs), SpaceX will have a Merlin 2 engine with a sealevel
thrust ~100,000 lbs, enabling SpaceX to compete against the lightest
versions of Delta IV and Atlas V. Falcon V in that configuration would
have a GLOW ~500,000 lbs.

The next obvious step would be a Falcon X, which would compete with the
heavier versions of EELV (~30,000 lbs to GTO), presumably with a GLOW
~1.5 million lbs. With 5 engines like Falcon V, 'Falcon X's' Merlin 3
or whatever would need ~300,000 lbs sealevel thrust. Then you have a
third generation vehicle with a third generation engine--> and nowhere
to go with it.

If, on the other hand, you take SpaceX at their word that they intend
to develop a ~1.5 million lb thrust engine in the next few years,
perhaps there will be no 'Falcon X'

Instead, a bigger version of Falcon I, call it 'Gigantor I', with one
Merlin 3 at 1.5 mil lbs thrust, as the lower stage. You probably save
some weight in the stage with one engine, with similar reliability to
Falcon I but the ability to carry heavy payloads--and no solids. Assume
the 1.5 mil thrust engine costs 3 times as much as the Merlin 2-->
still you're at <25 mil for the Gigantor I engine.

Now put 5 Merlin 3 engines on the lower stage--you're talking about a
vehicle with GLOW of 7.5 million lbs. Now you're dealing with a Saturn
V class vehicle (Gigantor V), with the ability to put >150 tons in
orbit. Perhaps for a recurring cost of less than $200 mil.

thoughts?
cuddihy

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: SpaceX Thought experiment -a Saturn V class vehicle within 10 years?
    ... >> The new update at SpaceX has got me cogitating. ... >> have a GLOW ~500,000 lbs. ... >> The next obvious step would be a Falcon X, ... And a price 1/6th as high to launch. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: SpaceX Thought experiment -a Saturn V class vehicle within 10 years?
    ... > The new update at SpaceX has got me cogitating. ... > GTO 4200 lbs), SpaceX will have a Merlin 2 engine with a sealevel ... > versions of Delta IV and Atlas V. Falcon V in that configuration would ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: SpaceX & NASAs Space Act Agreement
    ... He consistently claims that Falcon I and Merlin ... >build a booster with 3,000,000 lbs take-off weight. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Flexfuel nonsense
    ... My '64 Falcon two door weighed something like 2,000 lbs. ... A new Ford Crown Vic goes about 4,000 lbs and a new Focus 4 door weighs around 2700 lbs. I'll take the extra weight for the safety features provided in the newer cars. ... What you are forgetting is the multitude of changes to light weight plastic, and light weight metals, only to have vehicles weigh as much as they did when they were all steel. ...
    (rec.outdoors.rv-travel)
  • Re: Air Force quick turnaround, reusable booster.
    ... This might be a good concept, but what's the point if Falcon V can do ... 13,200 lbs at $1,200 per lb? ... And Falcon V is more likely to achieve these goals than USAF is to ... Prev by Date: ...
    (sci.space.policy)