Re: SpaceX Thought experiment -a Saturn V class vehicle within 10 years?
- From: "Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 8 Jun 2005 19:58:40 -0700
Tom Cuddihy wrote:
> The new update at SpaceX has got me cogitating.
>
> After Falcon V development is complete (LEO throw weight ~13,000 lbs,
> GTO 4200 lbs), SpaceX will have a Merlin 2 engine with a sealevel
> thrust ~100,000 lbs, enabling SpaceX to compete against the lightest
> versions of Delta IV and Atlas V. Falcon V in that configuration would
> have a GLOW ~500,000 lbs.
>
> The next obvious step would be a Falcon X, which would compete with the
> heavier versions of EELV (~30,000 lbs to GTO), presumably with a GLOW
> ~1.5 million lbs. With 5 engines like Falcon V, 'Falcon X's' Merlin 3
> or whatever would need ~300,000 lbs sealevel thrust. Then you have a
> third generation vehicle with a third generation engine--> and nowhere
> to go with it.
>
> If, on the other hand, you take SpaceX at their word that they intend
> to develop a ~1.5 million lb thrust engine in the next few years,
> perhaps there will be no 'Falcon X'
>
> Instead, a bigger version of Falcon I, call it 'Gigantor I', with one
> Merlin 3 at 1.5 mil lbs thrust, as the lower stage. You probably save
> some weight in the stage with one engine, with similar reliability to
> Falcon I but the ability to carry heavy payloads--and no solids. Assume
> the 1.5 mil thrust engine costs 3 times as much as the Merlin 2-->
> still you're at <25 mil for the Gigantor I engine.
>
> Now put 5 Merlin 3 engines on the lower stage--you're talking about a
> vehicle with GLOW of 7.5 million lbs. Now you're dealing with a Saturn
> V class vehicle (Gigantor V), with the ability to put >150 tons in
> orbit. Perhaps for a recurring cost of less than $200 mil.
>
> thoughts?
Before you have SpaceX building a Saturn V, consider
that this company has not yet even tried to launch
its first small rocket, let alone succeeded.
The Falcon V of which you speak is currently nothing
but drawings and piles of parts and stock aluminum,
with some parts welded together. There is talk of
putting the first five Merlin engines together for
initial testing late this year or early next, but
consider that it took von Braun and company nearly
a year to get their first cluster booster fully up
and running on a test stand.
The Falcon V version that purportedly will be built
from those bits and pieces is far short of a match
for the smallest EELVs. If it can be made to work,
it will only be a Delta II class launcher - and then
only on paper since SpaceX will still be decades
behind the Douglas-McDonnell-Boeing Thor/Delta
learning curve. (At 574 launches, Thor/Delta is the
world's second-most flown rocket after Russia's R-7.)
The projected liquid hydrogen upper stage that could
make Falcon V as powerful as a Delta IV Medium is not
a trivial thing to develop. Years and many tens of
millions of dollars yet before we see that stage,
if ever.
But even when and if SpaceX gets Falcon V flying,
Musk will have spent maybe $100 million on the
effort. It would take hundreds of millions, maybe
even billions, of dollars more to develop a
Saturn V class rocket. (Kistler is looking for
$500 million that it needs to complete its K-1).
Musk doesn't have that kind of money. He is only a
multi-hundred millionaire. (Yes, he sold PayPal for
more than a billion, but he had to use much of the
proceeds to pay down debt he used to leverage the
company's development). He certainly isn't going to
make that kind of money selling Falcon V launches
at $12 million a pop.
- Ed Kyle
.
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