Re: It's In-Line (Shuttle Derived)
- From: "Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 25 Jun 2005 10:52:58 -0700
George William Herbert wrote:
>
> Advertised Falcon V price is $3 million per metric
> ton to LEO, plus or minus epsilon.
>
> Do you believe that the new Shuttle Derived HLV
> will cost less than $350 million per flight, including
> its development cost amortization and all the government
> overhead and the like, at flight rates of 2-3 per year
> and a 10 year development cycle?
What I don't believe is that Falcon V, if it ever
flies, is going to cost $3 million per LEO tonne
after its initial flights. The price will have to
go up, or SpaceX will cease to exist once Elon Musk's
pockets empty. Not to mention that a new maneuvering
cargo-hauling stage will be needed for the SpaceX
rockets, a need that could easily double or triple
the "real" Falcon V per-tonne payload costs.
- Ed Kyle
.
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