Re: Deep Impact Kicks Off Fourth of July with Deep Space Fireworks
- From: spinoza1111@xxxxxxxxx
- Date: 21 Jul 2005 19:06:08 -0700
Eric Chomko wrote:
> spinoza1111@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
>
>
> : Joe Strout wrote:
> : > In article <42dcb390.80743252@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> : > simberg.interglobal@xxxxxxxxx (Rand Simberg) wrote:
> : >
> : > > >The problem being we don't know how to prevent an Earth strike. Recent
> : > > >research has discovered that the Bruce Willis prevention
> : > >
> : > > Yes, we do, as long as we aren't so ignorant as to think that
> : > > Hollywood is a useful guide as to methods by which to do so.
> : > >
> : > > <rest of ignorance of orbital mechanics snipped>
> : >
> : > But Rand, you snipped the best part:
> : >
> : > > ...could very well make one Earth strike into many Earth and
> : > > Moon strikes, where the latter through tidal effects could have further
> : > > bad effects.
> : >
> : > Hee hee! It's good to start the day with a laugh.
>
> : Especially if the rest of the day you spread cheek to people who think
> : like a manager and not an engineer. OK, a Moon strike would not change
> : the tides. As a layman who pays your goddamn salary, I find this a
> : surprise and I await your answer, for that is what usenet is for.
>
> Allow me. You need to get a better understanding how little there is in
Excuse me. I have been well aware since university and before how far
apart planets are, and to a lesser extent. asteroids.
Unfortunately, you are projecting a complex three-dimensional system,
that includes unknown subplanetary objects, onto a simplistic linear
scale.
Even if planets and to a lesser extent asteroids are far apart,
interactions over time (whether aeons or shorter periods) can increase
the probability of an event causing an event that affects humanity.
Ethically, even if the probability of Deep Impact causing through
indirect effects an Earth event is 10e-100, IF the event happened in a
space and time continuum with all the *raum undt zeit* in the world to
produce "unlikely" events, the authors of the destructive and macho
Deep Impact stunt would still bear an unbearable ethical responsibility
which they could have avoided by adopting my view, that as a complex
system space should be treated under a Hippocratic oath, above all, do
no harm.
Treat it in other words with reverence.
Furthermore, if techs on the current Shuttle launch cannot get as
required all four sensor systems working, if the current launch fails
to meet a major requirement of the 2003 investigation, then resources
should be focused on the Shuttle.
> space. Planets are thousands of miles in diameter. Planets are 10s and
> 100s of millions miles from one another, and orbits make their distances
> even further depending on where the planets are in their respective orbits
> at any given time. For example, the distance to the sun from the earth is
> always about 1 AU. However, Mars, at 1.5 AU from the sun, can be .38 AU to
> 2.5 AU from the earth. The comet is in between Jupiter and Mars. The
> likelihood that the comet debris be in earth's orbit when the earth is
> there is very remote, and that given that the debris is actually in the
> earth's orbital plane rather than above or below at 1 AU!!!
>
> What we did to that comet is the least of our worries. Jupiter, given its
> size, has the ability to turn comets that occur only once in the solar
> system into a captured periodic entities. Issac Asimov, in his book
> "Jupiter" goes into this. The point is that a comet, who's orbit is
> modified by Jupiter, presents a much greater chance of devestation to
> earth than does anything produced by Deep Impact. But even THAT chance is
> very small and nothing in recorded history has ever even come close.
>
> The way you are thinking is like the way many do about terrorism. Since
> 9/11 we have had 3000 deaths due to terrorism, but how much anxiety? Since
> 9/11 we have had 3000 people dying in auto accidents every 3 1/2 weeks!
> Are people worried about driving?
>
> Eric
>
> : >
> : > Best,
> : > - Joe
> : >
> : > ,------------------------------------------------------------------.
> : > | Joseph J. Strout Check out the Mac Web Directory: |
> : > | joe@xxxxxxxxxx http://www.macwebdir.com |
> : > `------------------------------------------------------------------'
.
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