Re: Air Force Signs Off on SRB-CEV

Ed Kyle <edkyle99@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>Kim Keller wrote:
>> "Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
>> news:1123908436.663883.31440@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > How about the GAO's numbers?
>> > "http://www.gao.gov/htext/d04778r.html";
>> >
>> > They say that EELV "Program and launch costs increased
>> > by about $13.3 billion over the approved 2002 baseline
>> > estimate of $18.8 billion". That's a 71% increase,
>> > over the original EELV contract when a straight EELV
>> > sold for something in the $70 million range, which
>> > puts both straight EELV models up to the $120 million
>> > plus range today. The GAO report says that the EELV
>> > program is getting close to costing as much as
>> > Titan IV.
>>
>> Don't forget that prices will come down as orders go up. NASA has been
>> launching roughly four space science missions per year on Delta II. Take
>> those orders and insert them in the EELV companies' order books and see what
>> the price drops to.
>
>Since the EELVs duplicate each other's capabilities
>and not those of Delta II, why not keep Delta II
>and drop one of the EELVs instead? I bet DoD
>would save a lot more cash that way.

What makes you think that the marginal cost of a Delta II core and
9 GEMs is less than that of a Delta IV core and small upper stage?

If we're going to use Delta IV and Atlas V for the mid/high range,
using them for the low range to keep the volume up makes perfect
sense, unless even with those additional EELV launches the cost
stays higher.


-george william herbert
gherbert@xxxxxxxxx

.

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