Re: Air Force Signs Off on SRB-CEV

George William Herbert wrote:
> Ed Kyle <edkyle99@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> >
> >Since the EELVs duplicate each other's capabilities
> >and not those of Delta II, why not keep Delta II
> >and drop one of the EELVs instead? I bet DoD
> >would save a lot more cash that way.
>
> What makes you think that the marginal cost of a Delta II core and
> 9 GEMs is less than that of a Delta IV core and small upper stage?

I think Boeing did this comparison several years ago
and decided to keep Delta II and cancel Delta IV Light
(I'm assuming that is what you mean by "small upper
stage"). But even a Delta IV Light would have 1.5
times or so more dry mass than a Delta 7920, so the
odds are that it would have higher marginal costs.

The issue is that there are currently three active
ELV production lines, with their inherent fixed
costs, and all three are underutilized. If one has
to go to save money, wouldn't more money be saved
by shutting down one of the bigger vehicle lines?

On the other hand, if the argument is that the
bigger EELV vehicles are so flexible and wonderful
that they can handle the Delta II class payloads,
then, since the EELVs duplicate each other and
would still be underutilized even with the Delta II
payloads, why not shut down *two* production lines
and just keep one EELV?

I think the latter option is where we're heading.
All three production lines are going to be under
one roof soon. If Delta II is shut down, and it
seems the pressure is on to shut it down, then
this co-production setup, where the Alliance will
supposedly pick the best vehicle for each payload,
will soon find itself picking only the better of
the two EELVs (and I think we all know which one
it is) over and over again. They won't have to
shut down one of the EELV lines. It will just
stop running by default.

- Ed Kyle

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: What else could you do with the Stick?
    ... DOD abandoning their dual launcher policy? ... of one of the EELVs going down the tubes. ... It will have to be Atlas 5, ... Delta IV is capable of 18 flights per year (limited by the Mariner, ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Air Force Signs Off on SRB-CEV
    ... >>>and not those of Delta II, ... >>>and drop one of the EELVs instead? ... one small-vehicle production line and one big-vehicle ... big vehicle is likely to be cheaper than a monopoly-priced ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Air Force Signs Off on SRB-CEV
    ... >and decided to keep Delta II and cancel Delta IV Light ... >payloads, why not shut down *two* production lines ... Well, the two EELVs have a little commonality, at least in the RL-10 ... Even when Boeing got caught cheating with LockMart ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: SpaceX Upgrades
    ... Falcon V can't compete for most EELV-class payloads. ... and less than 19% of the maximum EELV payload mass. ... Soyuz and Delta have typically flown more often than the big GTO ...
    (sci.space.policy)