Re: Launch vehicle costs (was Air Force Signs Off on SRB-CEV)

Josh Hopkins wrote:
> "Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
> news:1124399288.994404.233360@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> [During a debate on predicting launch vehicle costs]
> >
> > Dry mass is not the sole determinant of launch vehicle
> > cost, but it is an important macro determinant and I
> > think that it is a good way to do "back of the envelope"
> > comparisons - especially when comparing vehicles
> > with similar flight rates.
>
> [Note 1: Anyone who proposes using "inert" or "dry" mass as a measure of
> production cost ought to explain why the mass of solid propellant gets
> excluded.

I did a comparison of U.S. ELVs used during the past decade
or so and found that adding the solid propellant mass created
a larger distribution of prices, payload mass, etc, versus
any number of variables. The best figures of merit for
comparison appeared to be dry mass and gross liftoff mass
(GLOW). I compared these with both estimated launch price
and payload mass, as shown below.


US Launchers

Dry GLOW PL Est $/ $/ $/
Mass LEOx28 Price LEOPLkg Drykg GLOWkg
t t t $M2005

Titan 405 88.60 903.52 21.68 410.0 18911.44 4627.54 453.78
Delta 4H 85.92 712.00 23.50 254.0 10808.51 2956.24 356.74
Atlas 5-552 47.04 564.43 20.52 192.0 9356.73 4081.63 340.17
Delta 4M+54 42.55 337.57 15.50 160.0 10322.58 3760.28 473.98
Atlas 5-532 39.13 471.91 17.30 160.0 9248.55 4088.93 339.05
Delta 4M+42 35.55 289.69 13.70 138.0 10072.99 3881.86 476.37
Delta 4M 31.48 251.53 9.50 133.0 14000.00 4224.90 528.76
Delta 8930 30.12 296.20 8.30 90.0 10843.37 2988.05 303.85
Delta 7920H 26.32 280.18 6.14 78.0 12703.58 2963.53 278.39
Atlas 5-402 25.37 330.26 12.50 138.0 11040.00 5439.50 417.85
Delta 7920 19.30 227.35 5.10 65.0 12745.10 3367.88 285.90
Atlas 3B 18.40 222.43 10.76 90.0 8364.31 4891.30 404.62
Atlas 2AS 17.87 233.23 8.62 100.0 11600.93 5595.97 428.76
Atlas 2A 13.64 186.97 7.32 85.0 11612.02 6231.67 454.62
Titan 23G 11.14 149.00 3.18 43.0 13522.01 3859.96 288.59
Delta 7320 11.44 148.87 2.80 55.0 19642.86 4807.69 369.45
Athena 2 10.21 118.00 2.07 28.9 13961.35 2830.56 244.92
Taurus-120 6.25 71.80 1.30 23.0 17692.31 3680.00 320.33
Athena 1 6.00 64.90 0.82 18.9 23048.78 3150.00 291.22
Minotaur 3.90 35.80 0.64 14.3 22343.75 3666.67 399.44
Pegasus XL 2.03 21.81 0.44 18.0 40909.09 8867.00 825.31

average 14892.87 4283.86 394.39
median 12703.58 3881.86 369.45
stddev 7161.90 1371.18 122.85
relative variance 0.48 0.32 0.31

The best fit curves for price versus dry mass, price versus
GLOW, and price versus payload mass were as follows.

Price($M2005) = -0.0002x^2 + 3.7729x + 6.6361 (x=dry mass in tonnes)

Price($M2005) = 0.0001x^2 + 0.2995x + 8.6211 (x=GLOW in tonnes)

Price($M2005) = 0.2519x^2 + 6.035x + 20.34 (x=payload mass tonnes)

The median cost per dry mass for this group came out to
be $3,881.86 per kg, or about $1,760 per lb.

Note that the best-fit curve indicates that it appears
to cost a minimum of $20 million to launch a theoretical
zero-payload ELV.

- Ed Kyle

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: TVTropes Infodump page
    ... If you want to destroy something, _shoot missiles at it_. ... costs a lot of mass, making unmanned battle platforms mroe efficient ... Defenses do and always will cost "mass." ...
    (rec.arts.sf.written)
  • Re: New space settlement article
    ... >> SPS to be greater than the mass of space habitats. ... >> a wholew different area of topic, but I think all colony designs ... The other side is the cost ... of materials and their processing. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Branson and Bigelow to team up for a space hotel?
    ... obtaining the minimum cost for doing so. ... physical reality of what it takes to launch payloads into space. ... launches - that adds $60 million to the cost of getting up given mass. ... Since NASA is already running a refueling depot competition then let ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: We can meet all our needs through space development
    ... mass of solar cells has not been dicussed. ... the lab with quite a large mass per surfae area. ... The key factor is cost per watt electrical since that determines the ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: ...Nasa/Griffin LYING about Public Support for Moon/Mars Missions!
    ... Assuming habitat mass and SPS mass are of roughly ... would cost a bit over two million ... Part of the cost of SPS electricity will go to groundside ops, ... is with shielded cyclers in elliptical orbits from LEO out to near GEO ...
    (sci.space.policy)
Quantcast