Re: NASA Picks In-Line (Maybe)


Murray Anderson wrote:
> "Will McLean" <mclean1382@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
> news:1125023468.981670.290560@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > Ed Kyle wrote:
> > > George William Herbert wrote:
> > > > I am resistant to the Stick as it is
> > > > currently viewgraphium being used to fight successful
> > > > flying launch vehicle models, which is often a
> > > > gross error an in this case one upon which two
> > > > or three decades of national space policy and
> > > > on the order of $150-200 billion dollars in NASA
> > > > project funds are in the process of being committed.
> > > >
> > > > We deserve better answers than what we have so
> > > > far on a decision of this magnitude and import.
> > >
> > > I agree. Let's see some numbers. Otherwise folks
> > > like me are reduced to guesstimate comparisons
> > > that don't look good for SRB-based boosters.
> > >
> > > I did a comparison of U.S. ELVs that
> > > have flown in the last decade or so in message:
> > >
> > >
> "http://groups.google.com/group/sci.space.policy/msg/50bc554fad13c889?hl=en&;
> "
> > >
> > > The Stick, as best I can guess, would come in
> > > with a dry mass of roughly 100 tonnes and a
> > > gross liftoff mass of perhaps 1000 tonnes
> > > (about 12 tonnes more dry mass and 100 tonnes
> > > more GLOW than a Titan IVB). A fit to previous
> > > ELV data indicates that a non-recoverable
> > > 4-segment SRB Stick would be "priced" somewhere
> > > around $400 million per launch, just for the
> > > launch service. Throwing out the Titan 4 data
> > > as a wild card (Titan and Pegasus are extremes
> > > in this data that don't seem to fit well) would
> > > lower the projected Stick price to $300-350
> > > million per launch.
> > >
> >
> > There's a lot of noise in that data.
> >
> > Based on previously quoted costs, it looks like a Delta IV engine costs
> > at least $15 million, with the airframe, integration and avionics as
> > much again in direct manufacturing costs.
> >
>
> That means the stage cost would be 30 million plus.
>
> > Figure another $10 million for upper stage engine, airframe, etc.
> >
> > Roughly $100 million, plus overhead.
> >
>
> Roughly 40 million by your numbers. Maybe $100 million with overhead, if
> they don't fly often.
>

The Delta IV heavy version most comparable to the stick uses three
cores and an upper stage. 3 times 30 plus one times ten. Plus overhead.

Both vehicles *will* have overhead. But if you assume that you are
going to use a SDV for heavy lift as well, you will have most of that
overhead in any case.

The other factor is reliability. The propulsion components of the stick
have flown a lot, and were designed to carry crew, so I think it's very
plausible to argue that the stick will be more reliable than an EELV.
Personally, I think a man-rated EELV is a better choice, primarily
because it should be ready sooner, and requires less investment early
in the program. But I don't think the stick is an absurd choice.

Will McLean

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Thou shalt have no other gods before the ANSI C standard
    ... >> itself is to enhance security. ... > I agree completely with the first sentence. ... > what kind of overhead to expect, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is ... If it costs 50% more to implement the heap ...
    (sci.crypt)
  • Re: Overheads take up to 1/3 of tsunami funds
    ... >appears to have been spent on administration, staff and related costs. ... >percent of project funds for administration costs, ... Just 32% overhead? ...
    (soc.culture.thai)
  • Re: Would patients like to be able to email their doctors?
    ... running tests. ... Instead of that being a source for overhead, ... These figures do not include professional costs, rent, utilities etc. ... nor do they include possibble revenue from emails, lab tests, group ...
    (sci.med)
  • Re: K & K Vs Pick up of the World
    ... >>> It won't fit in the overhead and weighs over 200 pounds. ... It also costs ...
    (rec.music.makers.guitar.acoustic)
  • Re: Pie of Pie help
    ... To further complicate, costs are made up of multiple elements (wages, ... by the element (wages, overhead, burden, etc). ...
    (microsoft.public.excel.charting)
Quantcast