Re: Air Force Signs Off on SRB-CEV

On Sat, 27 Aug 2005 10:47:41 -0500, in a place far, far away, "Jon S.
Berndt" <jsb.at.hal-pc-dot.org> made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:

>"Rand Simberg" <simberg.interglobal@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
>
> > Scott Lowther wrote:
> > >VSE has the goals it has. Either deal with that fact, or try to change
> > >VSE's goals.
>
>> I am. Or rather, I'm simply pointing out that the current plan
>> doesn't achieve its goals, since a key part of it was supposed to be
>> "affordable" and "sustainable." Doing billion-dollar moon missions
>> with four people is neither.
>
>Is that a WAG, or is it based on something?

It's a guess, but not a wild-assed one. I think it's probably low.
Ignoring the cost of the flight hardware, just divide the number of
lunar missions planned for year by the annual cost of the standing
army required to support them.

>"Affordable" IMHO can mean "way less than what it cost before", or "spread
>over a time period to stay within the current budget".

I think "affordable" means what the public is willing to pay for it,
over the long term.

>What did a single
>moon mission cost us in the '70's (in 2005 dollars)?

Too much, apparently, since the public was apparently unwillingly to
continue to pay for it.

>I think Griffin's plan
>to use shuttle parts may be the cheapest way to go at this time.

In terms of development costs, perhaps. But then, so was the Shuttle.


In terms of marginal cost, it's another programmatic disaster waiting
to happen, like Shuttle and station.
.

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