Re: Could Falcon 9 compete with the Stick?

Chris Hall <cmhall@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:O1%Te.630$De1.426@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:

> SpaceX appears to have leap-frogged the Falcon 5 and gone to the 9
> which is an EELV class RLV. I know Falcon 1 has yet to fly, but Falcon
> 9 has a customer and the prices do seem cheap compared to any likely
> SDLV. With base model doing 9 tons to LEO for $27M, and heavy sending
> ~25 tons to LEO for $78M (these are pretty comprehensive prices,
> including range, insurance, integration), doesn't this look
> attractive? That is, if it all works.
>

http://www.spacex.com

IF it works; that's a big question. I'll be very interested in
seeing if this busy cluster of nine engines packed closely
together can function harmoniously. I give the first full-up
launch less than a 50% chance of success, unless they've done more
than one Falcon 5 flight to prove the reliability of that
engine, in clusters. I hope they haven't forgotten the N-1.

One big question is whether the first stage can be recovered
reasonably intact, and the engines can be reliably refurbished
at reasonable cost. The Falcon 9 Heavy launch facility will not
be as trivial as the Falcon 1's. I don't see mention of a
cryo upper stage, assume that's been deferred since the
existing design appears to offer adequate performance at much
lower cost.

Very ambitious, but if successful SpaceX has a decent shot
at an ISS resupply contract. As a CEV launcher, Falcon 9 will
have many major hurdles to clear. Competing with a heavy lift
SDV will require a new F-1 class engine. That future is very
murky to me.

Right now we must wait to see if this egg successfully hatches
and grows up, let alone multiply into a 27-engine behemoth.
Got my fingers crossed that it doesn't turn into a flightless
turkey.

--Damon
.

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