Re: Could Falcon 9 compete with the Stick?
- From: Cardman <do-not@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 01:38:10 GMT
On 8 Sep 2005 17:23:06 -0700, "Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>I don't believe the numbers. The going rate these
>days for U.S. launchers is about $10-13K per kg to
>LEO. Mr. Musk claims he has a business case for
>$3K per kg. I could imagine that it might be
>possible for a newbie to march into the space
>business with a fresh concept and undercut the
>old-line competition, but never by this much. It
>just doesn't seem believable to me.
There is a fairly new media report on Space-X that you can read
here...
http://www.spacex.com/media42.php
Their pricing seems sincere, where this is backed up by their low cost
production and operating methods. You would have to see their accounts
to see how the numbers work out, but I guess that they know what they
are doing.
They can also increase their prices if they need more. :-]
Their prices are low to mainly prove that commercial rocket launching
can be done for a low cost. Their claim is that the likes of Boeing
are just highly inefficient.
Should they indeed prove that this plan is commercially viable, then
the world would never be the same again. After all just why would
anyone pay more than $3k KG in the future when they can buy at this
price?
So should this work out, then this would be the end of an era of the
government funded rocket launches. Mostly all the rockets that you now
know would only be suitable for the scrap yard. Hell, even the stock
market could see a profit in rocket launches for once, where that in
itself is a miracle.
The lower prices also means more customers. And well Space-X is in a
prime position for taking on the bulk of existing launches, getting
the ISS resupply contract, possible helping out with NASA's moon plan,
then providing whatever to the tourist market.
I would directly claim that this first Falcon 1 launch is just as
important as with Spaceship One's record breaking trip. This is
naturally at $11,754 KG, but this is a large step in allowing their
larger rockets to come about.
Let me quote the price per KG to LEO of all their planned rockets...
Falcon 1 = $11,754
Falcon 5 = $4390
Falcon 9 = $2903
Falcon 9-S5 = $3091
Falcon 9-S9 = $3152
So the most efficient is the Falcon 9, which can lift 9.3 tons to LEO,
and 3.1 tons to GTO. This makes me wonder if they should reduce the
price of the Falcon 9-S5 and S9 a little, but that naturally is their
choice. People needing more mass can pay more I guess.
Space-X could well become the most important launch service the world
has ever seen. Should they achieve their claims, then they could
become like the next Intel or Microsoft.
You have also to see what prices are like once the development cost
has been paid back, further technology improvements, then good old
commercial competition.
I am much looking forwards to the day when the Falcon 9 launches and
proves that mass can be moved at just $2903 a KG. Still, lets see how
this Falcon 1 launch does, where this launch appears to have slipped
to (early?) October.
Cardman.
.
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