Re: Someone to defend the Stick?

On 11 Sep 2005 12:46:24 -0700, "Alex Terrell" <alexterrell@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

>Whether Falcon 5 or 9 succeeds or not, there are plenty of options in
>the 20 ton market. So the stick isn't needed for LEO operations.

The CEV could be somewhat heaver than 20 tons it seems. Still, maybe
that is NASA upping the size, so that it is heaver than current EELV
options to better justify the stick?

I would also not say "plenty of options" when NASA has to use the
small and shrinking US launch market.

>And the stick isn't up to Lunar operations - for that the HLV is the
>best bet.

That or LEO assembly and routing. If their HLV can directly put 14
tons on the Moon, then it could well be better to put 14 to 25 tons
into LEO and to then use their CEV to take it to Lunar orbit.

Just imagine the operation and cost had NASA done the CEV and then
just had SpaceX do the launching. They would like save $10 billion
plus on the construction cost of their two rockets. The operational
costs would be a lot less as well.

Certainly SpaceX will have to prove that their system is a viable
option, but clearly just their future plans starts to make you ask why
NASA has to spend billions more to achieve the same goals?

To keep their employees employed is the answer to that. This choice I
doubt makes for a better NASA in the future. The other reason is to
maintain the stick technology. As I doubt that this would ever be
commercially desirable, then that is a willing sacrifice to make.

As the Falcon IX could have a reasonable flight data before the CEV is
actually ready to launch in 2010 or 2012, then maybe Falcon IX should
be NASA's primary choice?

Naturally there should be a backup option in case SpaceX does not work
out, where I guess that the stick could be it. There is a $3 to $5
billion write off though. It could be cancelled early at least, when
the Falcon IX should start to fly from 2007. Their heavy version would
need to be pushed into priority operation, where this could possibly
be all done by 2008.

What else around is in need of 25 tons to LEO remains to be seen, but
I expect that a combination of NASA and the military could find a few
things to get that important flight data.

This option I suspect is what the whitehouse and congress should whip
NASA with, when NASA could well prefer to "waste" billions just to
keep this operation at home. Money. Jobs. Ripping off the US taxpayer.

NASA will certainly have to use the commercial option on the future,
should it work out as we all hope. As one day in the future congress
will question why NASA is spending a lot more doing the same thing,
where they will then forcefully close the NASA launching services if
needed.

So maybe NASA management should take the lead and to express interest
in commercial launching. I can only see that the future will be quite
interesting as the commercial sector starts to take over.

Cardman.
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Could Falcon 9 compete with the Stick?
    ... I know Falcon 1 has yet to fly, but Falcon 9 has a customer and the prices do seem cheap compared to any likely SDLV. ... With base model doing 9 tons to LEO for $27M, and heavy sending ~25 tons to LEO for $78M, doesn't this look attractive? ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: More info on Constellation/CEV
    ... The fact is that 20 tons is not just convenient for Lockheed ... NASA finds itself with a requirement that can be met by Delta ... Falcon rated at twice Falcon V). ... and an unfueled Apollo CSM was around 12 metric tons. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Could Falcon 9 compete with the Stick?
    ... I know Falcon 1 has yet to fly, but Falcon 9 has a customer and the prices do seem cheap compared to any likely SDLV. ... With base model doing 9 tons to LEO for $27M, and heavy sending ~25 tons to LEO for $78M (these are pretty comprehensive prices, including range, insurance, integration), doesn't this look attractive? ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Waiting for controversy...?
    ... Bob just hates NASA so much that he is frantically trying to prevent the ... would be very positive in the long run for our space program. ... start and stop in LEO. ... How many deaths are going to be acceptable to you as private companies ...
    (sci.space.shuttle)
  • Re: Lockmarts CEV-----back to the future?
    ... > That would only work if NASA had long term plans for use of those ... > industry to provide launch services and vehicles to help build the mars ... to explore the Moon and Mars while fostering LEO space industrial growth. ... > ships already. ...
    (sci.space.shuttle)