Re: commercial uses of the Dtick and the Heavy Lifter
- From: "Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 2 Oct 2005 15:55:58 -0700
Brian Thorn wrote:
> On 2 Oct 2005 12:54:44 -0700, "Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> >Given
> >that Delta 4 and Atlas 5 haven't been commercially
> >competitive, it doesn't seem likely that a Stick rocket
> >would be either.
> >
> > Dry Mass GLOW PL Est Price
> > Mass t t LEOx28 $M2005
> >Titan 405 88.60 903.52 21.68 410.0
> >SRB-Stick 99.00 768.00 26.00 ???.?
> >Delta 4H 85.92 712.00 23.50 254.0
> >Atlas 5-552 47.04 564.43 20.52 192.0
> >Atlas 5-532 39.13 471.91 17.30 160.0
> >Delta 4M+54 42.55 337.57 15.50 160.0
> >Atlas 5-402 25.37 330.26 12.50 138.0
> >Delta 8930 30.12 296.20 8.30 90.0
> >Delta 4M+42 35.55 289.69 13.70 138.0
> >Delta 7920H 26.32 280.18 6.14 78.0
> >Delta 4M 31.48 251.53 9.50 133.0
>
> I don't know, if $300 million per launch holds up, things might get
> interesting. The Stick brings so much throw weight to the table,
> that it may well be capable of launching two Monstersats (12-13,000
> lbs comsats) at the same time. Among existing or near-term feasible
> launchers, only Atlas 5-Heavy has a chance of matching the Stick's
> performance. But jumping from Atlas 5-552 to Atlas 5-Heavy will
> probably be a serious pinch on Atlas's low cost-per-pound and the
> Stick might actually beat it (no pun intended.) True, there's not a
> big market for Monstersats right now, but in the first half of the
> next decade, there might be. With a Stick able to launch two
> Monstersats for twice the cost of Ariane 5's one monstersat per
> launch, things do get interesting. The US might actually be able to
> field a launch vehicle that matches Ariane 5 in cost, and that vehicle
> came out of NASA. Who'd have thunk it?
>
> Brian
The two-stage Stick wouldn't be a very efficient
GTO launcher because the second stage would have
to be pretty big to put CEV into Low Earth Orbit.
My figuring shows that Stick will only be able to
do about 8.5 tonnes to GTO, which will not match
Ariane 5-ECA's 10 tonnes (or either of the most
powerful EELV variants). The Ariane upper stage
only weighs 2.1 tonnes empty while the Stick
second stage dry mass will be closer to 15 tonnes.
Stick would need a small third stage (a Centaur
would do) to convert some of that wasted mass to
GTO payload mass, but that would add to the launch
cost. The best GTO payload for a 3-stage Stick
might exceed 14 tonnes. Ariane 5 ECA reportedly
costs users something like $200 million or more, or
about $20,000/kg to GTO. A three stage Stick could
not compete with Ariane unless the Stick price was
less than $280 million (or if more GTO payload
were squeezed out of the hardware).
Now it could be that a Stick will cost its users
less than $280 million (such a price would still
fit the existing U.S. launcher price curve band).
But if so, it would be difficult for the launcher
to be commercialized in the midst of its NASA
duties.
- Ed Kyle
.
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- From: Ed Kyle
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- From: Brian Thorn
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