Re: Is Crew Launch Vehicle Too Big?


Monte Davis wrote:
> "Ed Kyle" <edkyle99@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> >If it ever flies, I believe that we will see the
> >Falcon 9 price rise steadily toward the norm (which
> >for it would be double the current price) in coming
> >years.
>
> And we will see the alt.space true believers stop talking about SpaceX
> and pin their hopes on the next contender. By definition, once they're
> flying real hardware to orbit in a real (rather than Powerpoint)
> economic context, they will have Sold Out To Big Aerospace and Lost
> the Vision.

I don't think offering a fixed price as opposed to a shifting
government formula is a 'not real' economic context. Most alt.spacers
are disgusted with the way the contracts are awarded--i.e., the
government pays Big AeroSpace and Huge Aerospace to develop 'competing'
rockets, pays them to fly them at low rates, and far above market
prices. (even if that is mandated by national security concerns).

If SpaceX is really being straight with everybody and expects to
recover costs and profit at $6.2 mil a pop for SLV launches, this will
indeed be a different world we're living in. With that in mind, next
Monday's launch is an event almost as epochal as Space Ship One's
winning the X prize. It will be the first time in the history of the
human race that an orbital space launcher was developed and launched,
NOT on the government budget.

If it works, of course.

If the Falcon 9 works for its currently advertised prices, there really
is the possibility of a space tourism market coming into existence.

Lots of ifs, and odds are, like Falcon 1, Falcon 9 will probably be
delayed several times. But progress is progress--as long as it can beat
Progress launch costs. ;-)
T
om

Tom

>
> When was the last time you saw Orbital Sciences listed among the
> innovative outsiders poised to shatter the paradigm? :-)

Orbital acheived a lot in terms of proving that space hardware didn't
have to cost as much as the government was paying. Unfortunately, it
didn't also prove you could make money doing it.

.

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