Re: Space Access Update #112 9/19/05

"Len" <len@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>Monte Davis wrote:
>> "Len" <len@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>
>> >The current space transportation market is measured
>> >perhaps in the couple of hundred tonnes per year range.
>> >However, the same money spent on space transportation
>> >with an elasticity of 1 would result in perhaps
>> >some thousands of tonnes per year.
>>
>> "Elasticity of 1"..?!?!
>>
>> Can you point to *any* data from the last 48 years that suggests such
>> a value?
>
>Not meant to be a market research datum.
>Rather, this comment was meant to be an exercise
>in logic. If the price of access to space can be
>reduced by a factor of 20; why shouldn't payload
>users want to get 20 times as much payload for a
>given amount of money spent on space launch.

Why should they want 20 times as much payload of the same money?
Dropping launch costs won't automagically make more slots open in GEO,
or increase the bandwidth available via DSN. Even if the launch was
free, an experiment like Gravity Probe B only need to be flown once.

At least on the unmanned side of the house, the logic fails.

>At the least, those managers responsible for space
>exploration should appreciate the value of 20 times
>as much propellant in LEO for the same amount of money.
>If such managers do not know what to do with 20
>times as much propellant, perhaps those managers
>should be replaced.

Knowing what can be done with it, and being able to do something with
it are two entirely seperate things. Cheaper launches won't
automagically reduce the infrastructure and hardware costs.

D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.

-Resolved: To be more temperate in my postings.
Oct 5th, 2004 JDL
.

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