Re: Space Access Update #112 9/19/05

In article <ZTVKInClA6WDFwkx@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
Dr John Stockton <reply0510@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>Aircraft are not a suitable model. There has been no major techno-jump
>in passenger aircraft construction since WWII. There have been steps,
>large and small, but all fairly obvious and intended to serve an
>existing market...

Uh, no, not so. The creation of the 747, in particular, was a massive act
of optimism -- there was *NO WAY* that the existing market could possibly
justify such an enormous increase in capacity, given that Boeing needed to
sell 400 of the things just to break even. That decision was made at a
time when jet airliners still served the luxury market, as witness the
term "jet set". The idea that the market for air travel would expand
enormously in the space of only a decade -- in the process, wiping out the
rail and ship passenger markets -- bordered on fantasy.

And in fact, Boeing came very near bankruptcy while waiting for the market
to grow enough to buy 747s. The company is still distinctly risk-averse
as a result of that near-death experience.

Widebody jets were not a massive jump in technology -- although there were
one or two new technologies, notably the high-bypass turbofan, which were
required -- but they were a big jump in the *application* of technology.
--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. | henry@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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