markets (was Re: Space Access Update #112 9/19/05)
- From: henry@xxxxxxxxxxxxx (Henry Spencer)
- Date: Wed, 2 Nov 2005 15:18:41 GMT
In article <sEJ3NMBrPNZDFwLm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
Dr John Stockton <reply0510@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>...The creation of the 747, in particular, was a massive act
>>of optimism -- there was *NO WAY* that the existing market could possibly
>>justify such an enormous increase in capacity, given that Boeing needed to
>>sell 400 of the things just to break even. That decision was made at a
>>time when jet airliners still served the luxury market...
>
>There was an existing market; it only needed expansion for the 747 to
>break even.
Except that the existing luxury/business market was demonstrably incapable
of such a huge expansion. The 747 could break even only if air travel
became a routine thing for the ordinary public, which it *wasn't* at the
time. This was an airliner for a new market, not a predictable expansion
of an old one.
People take it for granted now that long-distance travel is done by air,
and forget that a mere fifty years ago, air travel was almost exclusively
for the rich and the business traveler. When the 747 was conceived, there
were hints that this was starting to change, but it still took a bold man
(or a crazy man, like some of the people who ran airlines... :-)) to bet a
billion dollars on massive, radical change within a decade. Only in
uncritical hindsight does this look obvious and inevitable.
--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. | henry@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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