Re: SpaceX Falcon Ready to Go - Again.


Ed Kyle wrote:
> Tom Cuddihy wrote:
> > Ed Kyle wrote:
> > > Ed Kyle wrote:
> > > > Press conference planned for 11/18/05 will announce
> > > > launch date and time.
> > > >
> > > > "http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=18326";
> > > >
> > > > - Ed Kyle
> > >
> > > Nothing official from SpaceX yet, but semiofficial range
> > > schedules show Falcon 1 planning for no earlier than
> > > December 19. The launch can't go until after a ballistic
> > > missile test. It will not be able to go December 22 or
> > > later, due to the holidays.
> > >
> > > BTW, there has been a lot of talk about how wonderful
> > > a place Kwaj is for launching rockets. The truth is that
> > > there are so many occupied islands in the region to the
> > > east that launch azimuths are suprisingly limited.
> > > Azimuths from 55 degrees to 110 degrees present
> > > downrange problems, for example.
> > >
> > > - Ed Kyle
> >
> > How much of a problem is that really though? If a 1 mi^2 island 100
> > miles to the northwest is downrange, the chances that any kind of
> > launch would actually hit there are miniscule.
>
> The problem is that it isn't one island, it is "approximately"
> 1,225 islands comprising 29 atolls. Unfortunately for SpaceX,
> Kwajalein is on the western side of the Republic of the Marshall
> Islands, which places most of the "approximately" 1,225 islands,
> and 60,000 islanders, on the downrange side, space launch wise.
>
> See, for example: "http://www.rmiembassyus.org/General%20Info.htm";
>
> - Ed Kyle

First of all, pretty much all useful launch azimuths vary from true
north to east, and the single alternate launch azimuth to the southwest

for polar sun synchronous orbits. (though there's no real reason not
launch with an azimuth of 352T)

That cuts the total number of islands 'under the gun.'


Second, 100% of those people are located on less than 50 sq. miles of
land(obtained by subtracting some 20 sq. miles of the bigger
uninhabited atolls from the total 70 sq. miles.)
spread out over 750,000 sq. miles of ocean. Let's look at probability
here: assume a 100% chance a rocket launched from kwajalein is going to

come down somewhere in the Marshall Islands (which is rediculous) that
still gives it about a 50/750000 = 0.007% chance of even hitting a
populated island--that's not populated area, but populated island. And
this assumes a uniform probability of hitting a populated island.


In fact, the majority of RMI's population is in unuseful azimuths to
the southeast, like the only 'city' on Majuro, so a realistic
probablity would give an even lower number. Add in probablities of
failure to begin with, realities of ballistic physics, and the actual
probability of death or injury to a person and it's just rediculously
silly as a concern.


Our whole launch safety process needs an entire rethinking. If the same

principles currently used with likelihood of failure were applied to
aviation, no major city in America would qualify for an airport.


tom

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: SpaceX Falcon Ready to Go - Again.
    ... >>> east that launch azimuths are suprisingly limited. ... >> miles to the northwest is downrange, the chances that any kind of ... > 1,225 islands comprising 29 atolls. ... this assumes a uniform probability of hitting a populated island. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: SpaceX Falcon Ready to Go - Again.
    ... >> Ed Kyle wrote: ... The launch can't go until after a ballistic ... 1,225 islands comprising 29 atolls. ... Unfortunately for SpaceX, ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: My hypothesis on why Xbox 360 consoles are in such limited supply
    ... >Then don't call it a global launch. ... Hardly islands up in the Antarctic. ... Australia gets the 360 in March, still less than 4 and a half months ... >Or my older brother Colin. ...
    (alt.games.video.xbox)
  • Re: My hypothesis on why Xbox 360 consoles are in such limited supply
    ... Goodness, I'm sure there are some islands up in the Antarctic that would CRAVE for a ... a launch. ... Or my older brother Colin. ...
    (alt.games.video.xbox)
  • Re: SpaceX Falcon Ready to Go - Again.
    ... >>> miles to the northwest is downrange, the chances that any kind of ... >> and 60,000 islanders, on the downrange side, space launch wise. ... > this assumes a uniform probability of hitting a populated island. ... for rocket launching. ...
    (sci.space.policy)