Re: Historical comparisons
- From: alexandersheppard@xxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: 26 Feb 2006 13:45:45 -0800
Rand Simberg wrote:
On 25 Feb 2006 20:02:25 -0800, in a place far, far away,
alexandersheppard@xxxxxxxxxxx made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:
Obviously one industry turned out fairly sucessful
while the other died a slow lingering death. Or perhaps you think a
totally differant historical scenario is appropriate, or none at all.
Thoughts?
The problem is that there are really no historical analogies, given
that the world has grown so much richer with the end of the dominance
of the socialist paradigm, and the acceleration of technology. What
many will want is experiences, and they'll be willing and able to pay
for them. That means that space travel will have a large market.
I don't really think the experience of zero gravity is going to drive a
great wave of expansion.
Neither do I. Nice plump strawman, though.
What experiences did you mean, then? Quick travel to other spots on
Earth? A nice view? There may be reasons why people would want quick
travel, but even that is going to be increasingly less of an issue; if
you're not going to spend a long time at a place, it makes more sense
to just use telepresence.
The reality is that space is just an
inhospitable enviornment for human beings. It will never make a lot of
economic sense to bring too many humans there;
That's not "the reality." It's merely your (uninformed) opinion.
Millions of humans disagree with you, if market research is any guide.
Well, first of all we have to understand what I mean by "too many".
What I'm talking about is colonization. I'm not ruling out some limited
tourism like what you're (apparently) describing. In the grand scheme
of things, though, that isn't really very important. Space will be
largely colonized by posthuman intelligence (though in the beginning, I
would expect a small number of humans to fly out as "overseers").
Anyway, these things need to be understood in long term analyses.
.
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